Can Gordon Brown avoid having a referendum on the EU treaty?
Badly bruised from the fallout over his decision not to hold an autumn
election, Gordon Brown now faces a week dominated by his decision to avoid
another poll - a referendum on the proposed EU reform treaty.
He flies to Portugal on Thursday for a two-day summit of European leaders that
will finalise the text of the treaty that has replaced the defunct EU
constitution. With most observers expecting him to pick a last-minute fight
to prove his patriotic credentials, it remains to be seen whether this
well-worn tactic will be enough to see him face down the clamour for a
referendum.
What is this treaty?
The reform treaty agreed in outline at Tony Blair’s last summit as Prime
Minister in June caters for the European Union’s enlarged membership which,
after 12 nations joined in the past three years, has risen to 27 countries.
Among its most important changes is a new post of EU president, the slimming
down of the European Commission, the creation of a powerful EU foreign
minister (known as the High Representative), rejigging the voting weights of
member states and scrapping a series of national vetoes over EU policy. It
also gives full legal weight to the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights.
Weren’t we promised a referendum on that?
Labour promised to put to the country the question of whether to adopt a new
EU constitution - which contained all the above elements - as long ago as
the spring of 2004. It campaigned on that manifesto pledge at the last
election. Mr Brown is still bound by it.
So what’s changed?
The first thing that changed was the rejection of the EU constitution by the
French and Dutch voters in referendums in 2005. The results of those polls
effectively killed that version. But after Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy
were elected to power in Germany and France, the issue of EU reform was
placed back on the agenda. The new version - the reform treaty - is the
result of negotiations finalised in June. Since this is a traditional kind
of treaty, which amends previous treaties, and not a constitution, Mr Brown
argues that he is not bound by his earlier pledge.
Can he really get away with that?
Ministers can point to the preamble of the new treaty, which explicitly says
that the “constitutional concept” has been abandoned. References to some of
the most obvious attempts to give the EU the trappings of a superstate - its
flag, motto and anthem, for example - have been dropped. On the other hand a
growing number of influential people say that the reform treaty is a revived
version of the consitution in all but name. The Commons European Scrutiny
Committee became the latest body to join the clamour, calling the new text
“substantially equivalent” to the scrapped version in a report. And no one
expects the EU’s blue flag with gold stars to disappear because it is not
referred to in the reform treaty.
So Mr Brown will be forced to hold that plebiscite then?
Not a bit of it. Mr Brown will insist that the treaty is quite different when
he meets other EU leaders for the special intergovernmental conference to
finalise the text in Lisbon. For good measure he will do what all British
prime ministers do when under pressure over Europe: have a row. Having set
out those areas over which there can be no British compromise - the “red
lines” - Mr Brown is expected to pick a fight over one or more.
What are these so-called red lines?
Downing Street set out four areas for protecting British sovereignty: labour
and social legislation; the common-law system, police and judicial process;
foreign and defence policy, including Britain’s seat on the UN Security
Council; and any change to the “cost, scope and financial structure” of the
social security system. Britain’s opt-out from parts of the Charter of
Fundamental Rights was designed to secure the first and last of these.
Britain has also secured the ability to “opt in” to judicial policies
because of a move to qualified majority voting.
Why has he revealed his negotiating position so early?
Mr Brown is seeking to make his greatest weakness, his refusal to hold a
referendum, into his best negotiating weapon. By revealing his “bottom line”
to other countries he is telling the rest of the EU to go along with him or
risk seeing the reform treaty in tatters.
Who’s on his side?
Most EU nations want Britain inside the tent with the strongest support coming
from those countries that are also sceptical about the pace of EU
integration, including the Danes, Dutch, Swedish and Czechs. Mr Sarkozy is
also a strong ally.
And who’s not?
Mr Brown and before him Mr Blair stirred up the wrath of several federalist
leaders for not going along smoothly with plans for a more integrated EU.
The angry bunch includes Romano Prodi, of Italy, José Luis RodrÍguez
Zapatero, of Spain, Jean-Claude Juncker, of Luxembourg, and Guy Verhofstadt,
of Belgium.
How credible is Mr Brown’s threat to veto the whole process?
If there had been a general election campaign raging in Britain, Mr Brown’s
threat would have been taken extremely seriously by other EU leaders. As it
is, most view it as bluster for domestic purposes. However, as it is Mr
Brown’s first big EU summit, he will be treated warily because his
reputation for Euroscepticism goes before him.
If Mr Brown comes back declaring victory, is that the end of it?
Not exactly. He still has to get the Bill ratifying the treaty through
Parliament and, despite his majority of 69, he can’t be totally confident of
defeating attempts to amend the legislation so that the question has to be
put to the country. Some estimate that there may be more than 100 Labour MPs
prepared to rebel. Some Lib Dem MPs, under pressure from Conservative
opponents, may opt to vote for such an amendment.
Shouldn’t he just give in and call a referendum?
It’s not just Eurosceptics who want Mr Brown to seek the approval of the
British people for a new chapter in its relations with the EU. MPs such as
Keith Vaz, who support the treaty, believe that it provides an opportunity
for the Prime Minister to remake the case for Britain’s membership. Such a
move might also put David Cameron in the difficult position of having to
support the “yes” campaign, exposing the Tory leader to his own Eurosceptic
Right. Despite these apparent attractions there is little to no chance of Mr
Brown choosing to hold such a poll. The Prime Minister is determined to
avoid a referendum that he would probably lose: it could all too easily be
seen as a vote on his own performance.
Will any other countries hold a referendum?
The governments in both the countries that rejected the EU Constitution -
France and ther Netherlands - are desperate to avoid another vote in their
countries and have declared they will ratify the reform treaty through their
parliaments. Ireland is the only EU country to announce a plebiscite.
Denmark, which was planning a referendum when the EU constitution crashed,
will make a decision when the treaty is signed in December.
