Angus Macleod
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A defiant Alex Salmond challenged the evidence of recent opinion polls yesterday, saying he believed that Scotland would be independent within ten years.
The forecast is the first time since winning power north of the Border that the First Minister and Scottish Nationalist leader has ventured to set a deadline for the separation of Scotland from the rest of the Union.
His assertion that Scotland would go it alone within a decade came despite a recent survey which showed that only 23 per cent of Scots, fewer than one in four and the lowest level since 1997, now support independence, despite the SNP victory in the Scottish elections in May.
Mr Salmond told journalists in Glasgow of his expected independence date while being questioned at a press conference on the SNP’s strategy for boosting the country’s economic growth. That strategy includes a series of targets for Scotland to achieve within ten years, including matching the economic growth rate of small independent EU countries by then.
Mr Salmond added: “What you can take from the 2017 target is that we are confident we are going to have the [economic] levers by the time we get to 2017.”
Asked to expand on this, he added: “It would be much easier if we had the full powers of an independent country. Therefore I was anticipating being in that position by 2017.”
Mr Salmond’s prediction, which drew scorn and derision from the three Unionist opposition parties in Scotland, is reminiscent of previous Nationalist predictions that Scotland would be “Free by ‘93” or would have “Independence heaven by 2007” – the latter made by Mr Salmond ten years ago. However, what gives Mr Salmond’s latest forecast more force is that his party is in power in Scotland for the first time in its 73-year history and winning praise for its competence.
The Union with England is also showing increasing signs of severe post-devolution strain over issues such as the West Lothian question and Scotland’s share of UK spending, leading some observers to claim that the English are rapidly tiring of their 300-year relationship with the Scots.
The SNP, which is in minority power at Holyrood, has already said that it wants to hold a referendum on Scottish independence within the next four years. However, to get legislation through the Scottish Parliament even to hold such a referendum, it would have to have the support of at least one other major party – and there is no prospect of that at present.
Mr Salmond’s assertion that separation would happen by 2017 could be read as an admission that he now accepts that holding a referendum by 2011, far less winning it, is simply not attainable – although this was being denied last night by SNP sources.
Labour accused Mr Salmond last night of extraordinary arrogance and of taking Scots for granted.
Cathy Jamieson, Labour’s deputy leader, said that the First Minister had shown his true colours. “Since becoming First Minister, Alex Salmond has made breaking up Britain his priority – not health, education or law and order. Every time Alex Salmond has predicted when Scotland will be independent he gets it woefully wrong. This looks like history repeating itself.”
Nicol Stephen, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, said: “Rather than fixating on his obsession with independence the First Minister should listen to what the people want – more powers for the Scottish Parliament within the United Kingdom.”
Mr Salmond’s comments overshadowed the publication of his administration’s 42-page economic strategy proposal, which sets out the economic backdrop against which John Swinney, the Finance Secretary, will disclose today details of his three-year spending plans and annual budget.
The document sets the formal target of achieving UK growth levels by 2011 and by 2017 it sets the ambition of Scotland matching the growth rate of small independent European countries. It says that Scotland must marry its human capital with winning a competitive advantage over other countries in order to create sustainable growth and become a “Celtic Lion” to match and surpass other economies such as the much vaunted Irish “Celtic Tiger”.
The document also sets the target of closing the employment gap with the top five OECD economies and equalling European population growth, equating, Mr Salmond says, to about 150,000 more people.
Meanwhile, Mr Swinney’s budget will spell out spending over the next three years for all the devolved administration’s policy areas, including health, education, transport, justice and the environment. However, most attention will be focused on whether Mr Swinney has won the support of the country’s 32 local authorities for a freeze on council tax.
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J Roberts, Manchester, UK - you obvoiusly do not possess the intellect to understand the argument that Louise was making, and go on to lambast her for comments she didn't make.
Of course England contributes more to UK GDP - it has 10 times more people! GDP per capita is the relevant measure.
It is interesting that ALL recent economic reports (please check them out) suggest that Scotland at worst breaks even with respect to tax revenues raised and money spent. Meanwhile, the UK as a whole runs at a deficit (currently a debt of 40% GDP!). What does that suggest?
I find it absolutely incredible that these myths about Scotland being subsidised can get trotted out all the time and no one bothers to check the facts. We are forever hearing that Maggie Thatcher saved the British economy, but it was North Sea oil.
Doug, Glasgow,
Long live the union! Great Britain is made great by each of the four nations under the flag in different ways. Together we are strong, divided we fall.
Andrew , Reading, UK
"Labour accused Mr Salmond last night of extraordinary arrogance and of taking Scots for granted." - I laughed heartily when I read that coming from Labour!
Perhaps he is confident due to the recent findings (that never made it into English papers or BBC World, but did make the Scottish political editors blog on the BBC), the findings that we are the second biggest tax raiser outside of London... or that an independent Scotland would be the 3rd richest country in Europe. This from the civil servants reports and some journalistic research done by a Scottish newspaper that was sick of all the anti Scottish remarks coming out. Those are the reasons he may have more confidence, there has been no pole done since the findings. Certainly makes for some good reading... I think if they want to save the UK it has to federalise.
Graeme, Edinburgh,
Scotland is the second largest tax contributor outside of London. It states in reports from the civil service that we would be the 3rd richest country in Europe and further investigation and reports in a leading UK (Scottish based) newspaper showed that we pay our way. I notice none of these things were reported down South... ignorance is bliss I guess.
Gr8, Edinburgh,
Scotland is the 2nd largest tax raiser... London is number 1. As found by civil service reports and research by newspapers.
Gr8, Edinburgh,
I fully agree with Richard's comment about having an English Parliament as well as ones for Scotland, Wales and NI. Furthermore, we need to move to a form of proportional representation at both UK and English levels so that we avoid the travesty of a party with 35% of the vote behaving as though they had 75% of the vote. It is time for a major overhaul of our parliamentary voting systems so that we are all fairly represented in the government we elect.
Graham, Pinner, England
Methinks that Alex Salmond, dear boy that he is, has failed to grasp what the majority of Scottish citizens know: that Scotland does not have the resources nor the potential for economic independence. Most of the citizens up here that I have talked to realize that an independant Scotland would hit them right in the pocketbook with increased taxes and reduced services. Perhaps we could do as the Duchy of Grand Fenwick did and declare war on the US to acheive foreign aid. But like the Duchy we might win by default and then where would we be. Mr Salmond and his ilk should get their heads out of the past and think of the future where our children and grandchildren are going to have to live. Giving them an independant Scotland would probably either condemn them to poverty or result in a brain drain of our best.
Shirley Hodge, Glasgow, E. Renfrewshire
Ten more years of enjoying massive subsidies from the rest of the UK? Let them go it alone now.
Charles, London,
Even though you lot down south live in the sort of Twilight Zone that has resulted in Gordon Brown assuming the mantle of an Unelected British Prime Minister, we in Scotland face up to the realities of life. Having one of the biggest liars as the current leader, should perhaps make you English question the true state of the financial performance of your washed up Country. Lets not forget that Brown is renowned for locking himself away to escape the pressures of a job he is unsuited for.
Alex Salmond and the SNP Scottish Government have an approval rating that would would be the envy of any national leader on the Planet. I refer to the recent You Gov poll Scotland. Have a look at it and then maybe you will grow to believe as I do that a Government made up of Nationals of a particular country are far more in touch with the will of the peole. England needs an English Parliament especially when one looks at the failed Governments of the United Kingdom of the last thirty years.
Mike, Edinburgh, Republic of Scotland
Louise, Edinburgh, you are living in a fantasy world if you really believe those words.
The GDP of London alone is worth more than all of Scotland and Manchester's GDP is higher than Wales, Northern Ireland and the North East. I don't know about Birmingham but I imagine it is equally high. London is one of if not the Financial capital of the world. Where did you get such nonsense from? The population of England is 10 times that of Scotland, do you REALLY believe that all those people are contributing LESS money than Scotland to the economy because if you are you are quite simply mad.
J Roberts, Manchester, UK
We now have devolution, which is just a step towards full independence. We have individual sporting teams in rugby, football etc., and will never have a Great Britain team in those sports. I see no problem with complete independence for Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland if they so wish. Perhaps it may remove the chips from the shoulders of all those who seem to think they are being treated as the poor cousins.
alan, Benalmadena, spain
We will get on just fine (if not better) as independent countries. England will be better off all round. The union is in its death throes and Brown's attempts to resuscitate it serve only to draw out the inevitable. For me an independent England is the way forward regardless of what the Scots want.
John, Basingstoke, England
10 more years of the Barnett Rules and the multiple inequities of the British parliamentary system ?
10 more years of smaller constituencies in celtland than in England ?
10 more years of having to put up with a British government which plainly hates the English ?
England needs independence right now .
Jason , London , England ,
Having lived in Scotland for some 15 years I can say with some certainty that most Scots may well vote SNP but they do not want to break away from England.
Salmond woukd do well to recall just why the alliance came about in the first place.
Charles Horne, chichester,
Rick, England doesn't pay for anything Scotland gets. Why is it that the English believe that any money Scotland (or Wales) gets is English money? The different parts of Britain all contribute to the Exchequer and the Westminster Governmentâs own statistics show that Scotland contributes more than she receives so any money she does get is only some of her own money coming back. Westminster also commissioned economists to do a study into how the countries of Britain would fare if they were independent. They said that an independent Scotland would be the 7th wealthiest country in the world (and 3rd wealthiest in Europe) while England wouldnât even be in the top 20. Strangely, or perhaps not, that report âdisappearedâ in the run up to this years Scottish general election. So much for freedom of information!
Louise, Edinburgh,
The 23% in favour of independence was an opinion poll taken months ago. a later one gave support as nearer 40% while an online opion poll for a leading Scottish news paper gave the figure as 78%
John, Dalkieth,
It's hardly surprising many Scots are indifferent to independence. At the moment they can do what they want, free prescriptions, free care for the elderly, etc. and the English pay for it!
Not to mention being able to meddle in purely English affairs in Parliament without any similar ability from Enlish MP's
Rick, Crawley,
Hear, hear, Colin & Richard.
W Smith, Oldham,
I am the English mirror image of Colin in Edinburgh. I went to university in Edinburgh and retain a number of good friends from that era. But I agree with him entirely that the time has come for a parting of the ways. Like him I see no point in sterile discussions but I have to say that in my personal "middle class" experience, I have hardly ever come across an aggressively English patriot whereas too many Scots seem to have a chippy attitude and, whether south of the border or not, define themselves significantly in terms of their antipathy towards the English. Scottish independence will be English independence as well.
Howard, London,
England to be independent in 2017 eh? 20.17 this evening is more preferable.
Stephen Gash, Carlisle, England
Why not allow the English their own parliament in, for example, Birmingham or Manchester, to deal with English issues in the same way that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are currently governed? This would leave Westminster as a body dealing with issues such as foreign policy and defense and would answer complaints such as the Westlothian question.
As an Englishman I have no problem with Scottish independance, but do object to England being treated as less worthy of self government than the other three countries. I do not want English regional assemblies - I would like an English Parliament and for England to be treated as equal to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Richard, Manchester,
Another ten years. Ten YEARS? Why can't we jettison Scotland now?
England has always been these islands powerhouse and ,I for one, cannot see why we should be saddled any longer.
Terry, Aylesbury, England
Alex Salmond has been a breath of fresh air since becoming First Minister. To understand why simply compare his enthusiastic and hopeful comments with the cynical and negative comments from the three opposition parties. Salmond correctly predicted the SNP gaining power, I'm beginning to think he'll be right about independence too.
Katie, Edinburgh,
I am a middle aged middle class Scot with a responsible job. I pay what seems to me to be a great deal of tax, I am law-abiding and disinclined to get into arguments. I find excesses of patriotic enthusiasm embarassing and anti-English outbursts detestable. I should be a strong supporter of the Union , but I find myself reading articles in the London papers whose tone and content convince me that the time is coming for a civilised parting of the ways. Throughout the past 300 years, the Union has been maintained because of some energising joint purpose or compelling external threat, Empire building or fighting wars. (We may not have fought each other but we must have fought nearly every other nation on the planet) . We will always be neighbours with every interest in maintaining good and close relations, but the 18th century constitutional arrangement of the Union has had its day.
Colin, Edinburgh, Scotland