ALASTAIR CAMPBELL claims that Labour’s battle to win over the public is “largely done” as Michael Howard’s “nastiness” and extremism is ruining the Tory campaign.

The private views of Labour’s chief election strategist are revealed in a memorandum in which he says there are “now signs of a negative halo effect” for the Tory leader. In one passage he says: “So far we have been engaged in making and winning arguments. This job is largely done.”

He says the party’s private polling suggests the Tories’ focus on immigration has the effect of “skewing the perception of the party to the right” and “turns off” crucial voters in middle Britain.

“People are beginning to ask if MH [Michael Howard] ever talks about anything else. Men in particular have begun to notice MH never speaks on the economy. People are beginning to compare him negatively with Mrs Thatcher (and even John Major!). His nastiness and a sense that he is extreme are now being raised without any prompting.”

He adds: “This appears to be very good news for us. It means the Tories are increasingly being seen as extreme . . . They have been seen to move sharply to the right . . . We are now very close to the centre.”

Campbell says that Labour’s lead in the polls is “stable” — confirmed by a Sunday Times YouGov poll today — and
that Blair’s personal ratings are up while Howard’s have gone down.

The document, sent to members of Labour’s strategy team yesterday, reveals a confidence — even smugness — that is in stark contrast to public comments by Blair.

Yesterday, in an effort to fight off apathy among Labour’s “core” voters, Blair warned that the election is still “tough and tight” and could be decided by “a few hundred votes” in marginal seats.

The biggest fear among Labour strategists is that Blair’s Commons majority could be slashed. The optimism of the memo could backfire because it might encourage Labour supporters to be too complacent to vote.

Campbell’s document says: “The strategy — root everything in the economy, focus on values/dividing lines in public services — is on track and working.” This explains why Blair chose to strike back with a speech on asylum and immigration on Friday, after maintaining a silence on the issue for the first three weeks of the campaign.

For 18 months private Labour polls have been showing that the Tories have been ahead on the issue of immigration, which has long been found to be one of the top three issues concerning voters.

Campbell’s memo says that overnight polls immediately after Blair’s speech “show we can be confident on asylum and immigration. TB’s speech had huge awareness and he seems to have got the balance right, between action on the one hand, tolerance on the other”.

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