TONY BLAIR is heading for a majority of between 90 and 100 seats on Thursday, according to an authoritative study that accurately predicted the outcome of the 1997 and 2001 elections.

The study, by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, directors of the Elections Centre at Plymouth University, gives a predicted vote share of 37% for Labour, 34% for the Conservatives and 21% for the Liberal Democrats. This would give Labour a 96- seat majority on a uniform national swing.

It is backed up by the latest Sunday Times-YouGov poll, which also shows Labour three points ahead of the Tories, down one on last week. The YouGov findings, 36% for Labour, 33% for the Tories and 23% for the Lib Dems, would produce a majority of 92 if repeated on Thursday.

The projections come amid signs that Blair is preparing an early cabinet reshuffle for his third term, in spite of Labour’s insistence that the result is not yet in the bag. The Sunday Times has learnt that Blair will involve Gordon Brown closely in a ministerial reshuffle for the first time in five years. They will discuss it before polling day, finalising it on Friday.

Previous reshuffles, in which Brown’s allies have been sacked or moved sideways, have led to damaging headlines about a seething chancellor. This week, Brown is in a strong position to ensure that allies such as Jack Straw, Alistair Darling, Yvette Cooper and Douglas Alexander are protected.

The move is also on the understanding that Brown will have his associates in place when he takes over from Blair. Ed Balls, a former Treasury adviser, is tipped to become a junior minister if elected, while David Blunkett is expected to return to the cabinet.

Blair says that Brown would make “an excellent prime minister”. A senior figure close to both men said: “The meeting is important to make sure that the new peace is not threatened by the reshuffle. Gordon is going to be allowed to have a say and Tony will respect that his allies must be looked after.”

Michael Howard, having been accused of running a negative campaign, will tomorrow set out his “eight priority tasks” for a Conservative government, including more police, school discipline, cleaner hospitals, controlled immigration and lower taxes.

Charles Kennedy, the Lib Dem leader, said: “I’m confident of a big increase in the share of the vote for the Liberal Democrats.”

A Sunday Mirror/Observer Mori poll puts the Labour lead at three points while an ICM poll for The Sunday Telegraph puts Labour support on 39%, the Tories on 31%.

The Rallings and Thrasher projection of a three-point margin of victory for Labour is based on actual votes cast in the council by-elections that occur most weeks across the country. So far this year, 40,000 votes have been cast in such by-elections.

Raw vote shares at local level are then converted into national vote projections after allowing for two factors: turnout being lower for local elections compared with national polls and the tendency for voters to record “protest” votes against the party in power at local level.

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