Rain, cold temperatures, gusty winds and a possibility of gales — the meteorological misery that is the late May Bank Holiday will be playing to type again this year.

Ever since 1967, when Harold Wilson’s Government replaced the moveable Whitsun holiday with a fixed one in late spring, this has been a thoroughly nerve-racking holiday, with 27 of the 40 so far having been spoilt by heavy rain.

Any thoughts of a pleasant weekend will be washed away by forecasts of rain, rain and more rain, all of it carried on a stiff and very chilly wind.

A deep depression in the Bay of Biscay is heading towards the Channel, ready to drench the South Coast tomorrow. That band of rain will edge slowly northwards over much of England and Wales, causing plenty of showers on Sunday.

Any respite will be short-lived, with the next barrage of rain arriving on Monday on another depression sweeping through the Channel, with possible gales for extra gloom and doom. The best places to escape to will be Scotland and the North West, where there will be clear skies to enjoy.

During last year’s late May Bank Holiday, a whole month’s worth of rain fell on the Isle of Wight, snow showered the Lake District and the Cairngorms, sleet covered the Chilterns, and the England match at Headingley was reckoned to be the coldest day’s Test played in England. The bad weather came from a vigorous depression in the Channel, uncannily similar to the one predicted to arrive this weekend.

In 2006 hailstorms and heavy showers brought the holiday to a close, as Arctic winds and strong squalls capsized many boats off the South Coast and snow fell on the Highlands. In 2005 the weekend ended with thunderstorms, tornados lightning and giant hailstones.

The holiday of 2000 was probably the worst of the lot — a total washout. All thoughts of a dry day outside were abandoned when two months’ worth of rain fell in three days, accompanied by hail, thunder and lightning across a large part of Britain.

Heading the top of the rain table was Clacton-on-Sea, in Essex, which experienced a remarkable 100mm (4in). Flooding occurred in parts of East Anglia, and in East Sussex the River Uck overflowed its banks, inundating the town of Uckfield and forcing evacuations in neighbouring towns and villages: a fitting end to a thoroughly wet May.

Call it the curse of the Bank Holiday but the end of May is not always the ideal time for a day at the seaside. This is such a fickle month, and the holiday weekend is often jinxed by weather that would be more akin to winter than late spring. As the old saying goes: “Ne’er cast a clout til May is out.” This is thought to mean do not throw out your warm clothes (“clout”) until the hawthorn blossom has finished (hawthorn was called “the May” in old English, as Shakespeare described in his line “the darling buds of May”).

The end of May sometimes marks a turning point in the weather, when Atlantic winds return. During much of spring, these wet westerly winds tend to slacken off and we get drier weather. But the lack of Atlantic weather leaves the way open for weather from other directions.

This month we were given a taste of summer when some very mild air blew in on easterly or southerly airflows. In fact, the first half of May was the warmest on record. Since then the door has closed on that warmth, and winds have arrived from a more northerly, cooler direction. The westerly winds have dragged in Atlantic depressions and wetter weather. This bout of wet weather is sometimes called the arrival of the European monsoon, bringing with it that familiar phrase: “Rain stopped play.”

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