IT IS a formula to infuriate. A leading statistician has warned there are now enough speed cameras to ensure the average driver can expect to face three driving bans in their motoring career, writes Jonathan Leake.

The study found that a typical driver — someone who normally obeys the rules but occasionally lapses — should now see occasional bans as almost inevitable.

In a research paper published in Mathematics Today, Rose Baker, professor of statistics at Salford University, says that with 4,500 cameras in Britain “the average driver will face a driving ban every 15 years”.

Baker also says that, far from habitual speeders being singled out by the cameras, being caught is “a lottery”.

According to her formula, the average driver can expect to clock up a speeding offence every two years. However, no driver will accumulate offences at exactly the average. Some will be caught for several offences in a short time, others may go for years without speeding near a camera.

This random variation means a quarter of drivers will get enough points to be banned every seven years. At the other end of the scale the randomness means about 9% will get through their motoring lives without a ban at all.

“All these motorists would be driving in an identical way, perhaps breaking the speed limit a bit but not often,” said Baker. “The reason for this effect is simply the growing number of speed cameras.”

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