NOTHING is wobbling except the nerves of some overexcited party strategists. There is always a temptation in election campaigns, and we are in one now, to exaggerate short-term events at the expense of underlying trends. The conventional wisdom is that the Labour campaign has started badly. If so, and mistakes have been made, voters are not noticing.

The real story is not of a Labour wobble but of the stability of its support. Part of the problem is the misleading focus on the lead, rather than on the level of support for each party. Hence, much was made last week of a narrowing in the Labour lead (shown by ICM and MORI). This was immediately contradicated by YouGov and CommunicateResearch, which showed that the lead had risen. With one exception, variations are within the usual margin of error and differences in when the polls were undertaken.

Labour’s average support has risen by a couple of points in recent polls compared with before Christmas. Three polls have put Labour in the 37 to 39 per cent range, and three just above 40 per cent. So much for jitters among Labour voters.

Tory support in four recent polls is put at 32 and 34 per cent (with one on 30 per cent), in line with the average in the first half of last year but up on the 31 per cent of recent months. The one exception is MORI, which put the Tories on 37 per cent, cutting Labour’s lead to just two points.

The Tories have benefited from their well co-ordinated policy initiatives, such as on immigration (with a further instalment today) and on council tax relief for the elderly. These are aimed at raising turnout among core supporters.

The main movement in the polls has been from the Liberal Democrats and other parties to the Tories, rather than from Labour to the Tories. The Lib Dems have slipped slightly because they have been out of the news in recent weeks, as both other main parties want. Lib Dem support is below last year’s average, but still well up on this stage of the last Parliament. And they will receive much more coverage during the main campaign.

The key variable is the likelihood of Labour supporters to turn out. The Tories have benefited from the greater determination of their supporters to say that they will vote, rather than from any sustained rise in underlying Tory support. The certainty to vote of Tories has been about ten points higher than among Labour backers.

Populus has shown that the monthly average of all published polls in February puts Labour on 40 per cent, up from 37 per cent the previous month, against 33 per cent for the Tories, up from 32 per cent. So Labour hardly needs to panic. Some of its campaign efforts have been clumsy, but they have made little impact. The Tories should not celebrate too soon. They have had a good two weeks and firmed up their support, but no more.

This year’s election looks tighter than the last two. Labour is four points below its 2001 general election share of the vote, but it has remained in the lead in virtually every poll. My cautious hunch remains a Labour overall majority of 50 to 70.

Explore UK News

• Crime News

• Education News

• Health News

• Scotland News

Times Recommends

• Should Knox’s trial even have reached the courtroom?
• All that glitters is not sold in Wright’s world
• Believe it or not, Big Brother is your friend