Britain is to buy almost 15 million courses of a powerful antiviral drug to protect the country against a pandemic of the deadly bird flu that could claim tens of thousands of lives.

John Reid, the Health Secretary, announced the purchase of the drug oseltamivir, sold under the brand name Tamiflu, today as Sir Liam Donaldson, the Chief Medical Officer, published the Government’s Influenza Pandemic Contingency Plan setting out the steps being taken to prepare for a flu pandemic.

The drug purchase, which will cost almost £200 million, will be enough to treat one in four of the UK population, the level recommended by the World Health Organisation.

Forty-six people have died in southeast Asia since an outbreak of bird flu in late 2003 and public health experts fear that the virus could soon mutate, opening up rapid transmission from human to human.

’The plan we are publishing today, together with our procurement of these antivirals, puts the UK in the forefront of international preparedness for a possible flu pandemic," Mr Reid said.

"We are working closely with other governments and the World Health Organization to ensure the international community is as well prepared as it can be to spot and address the early signs of a pandemic as quickly as possible. However, it makes sense to ensure we in the UK are as prepared as we can be and have drugs for use against an influenza pandemic here.

"That is why I have ordered 14.6 million courses of oseltamivir for delivery over the next two financial years. This will enable us to treat one in four of the UK population - the proportion which the WHO recommends we plan for.’

Around 12,000 people die in the UK every winter from 'seasonal flu', but experts say that a global flu pandemic, involving a new strain of the disease, is overdue. If a pandemic broke out there would be a delay until an effective vaccine could be developed - during which time the anti-viral drug could be used to control the illness and alleviate its effects.

The effects of a global pandemic would depend on the virulence of the flu strain that eventually emerges, but the Department of Health says an outbreak could claim 50,000 lives in the UK or more.

"It might never happen, but what is clear is that the experts tell us the risk of if happening is high enough to make it necessary to plan for it and spend some serious money on antivirals," a Department of Health spokesman said today.

"It's not inevitable, but for planning purposes we're assuming it's inevitable."

The official contingency plan includes quarantine measures and arrangements for the emergency services. Concerts and football matches could both be banned and travel restricted in the event of an outbreak to stop the virus spreading.

Sir Liam said: "Wherever in the world a flu pandemic starts, perhaps with its epicentre in the Far East, we must assume we will be unable to prevent it reaching the UK. When it does, its impact will be severe in the number of illnesses and the disruption to everyday life. The steps we are setting out today will help us to reduce the disease's impact on our population.

'We have already started work which should help speed up the production of a vaccine once a pandemic strain of flu has emerged."

There have been three major flu pandemics in the past 100 years. The worst one in 1918 killed up to 50 million people, including more than 200,000 in Britain. Around one million people were killed in the last pandemic of Hong Kong flu in 1918.

Measures set out in the plan include:

• Improving surveillance of avian or'bird' flu in South East Asia - seen by experts as the most likely source of a pandemic strain of flu transmitted by people. The UK Government recently gave the World Health Organization £500,000 to boost avian flu monitoring in the region and improve the chances of an early warning of a pandemic.
• Ensuring robust surveillance of possible cases in the UK, using the existing procedures of the Health Protection Agency and Royal College of General Practitioners to monitor flu-like cases seen by GPs.
• Informing the public about the likely risks of a pandemic and what they should do in the event of pandemic flu.
• Being prepared to take steps to reduce the risk of spread of the disease, such as advising against certain travel, possibly closing schools and cancelling events where large crowds gather such as football matches or pop concerts.

The Swiss drugs company Roche will supply 14.6 million courses of Tamiflu over the next two financial years, with 7.3 million courses available by the end of 2005-06 and the rest as soon as possible during the next financial year.

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