A CLEAR majority of voters still prefers a Labour to a Conservative government, although fewer than one in five voters is now satisfied with the Blair team’s record, according to the latest Populus poll for The Times.

The poll, undertaken over the weekend, underlines the key paradox about British public opinion. The Government is very unpopular, but only a minority of voters yet prefer the Tory alternative.

These figures suggest first that the Conservative lead in this month’s voting intention figures so far mainly reflects disillusionment with the Government and, secondly, that Labour is still reasonably placed to win the next general election.

Moreover, Labour is still seen as doing “the best job” on seven of the ten most important issues to voters. The exceptions, where the Tories are ahead, are immigration and asylum, crime and disorder and the level of taxes, the areas that the Conservative leadership has highlighted in its recent campaigning.

The NHS and education are top of the list of the most important issues for voters, and Labour is ahead on both. Europe comes bottom of the list, mentioned by 8 per cent of voters against 64 per cent for the NHS.

The most revealing question is about the choice of government. As when this was last asked in February, just 19 per cent of voters are satisfied with the Government overall and three quarters are dissatisfied (74 per cent now, down from 77 per cent in February).

But three fifths (58 per cent now, against 60 per cent in February) say that they still prefer a Labour to a Tory government. This includes the key group of those who are dissatisfied with Labour overall but who still prefer it to the Tories, now 39 per cent, down just two points since February. A half of swing or floating voters, who may change their party preference before the general election, are in this “dissatisfied, but still preferring Labour” category. Just a third (35 per cent) say that they would rather have a Tory government, virtually the same as those now backing the party.

These figures will be seen as reassuring by Labour strategists that, despite all the Government’s current problems, the Tories have not yet convinced voters that they are a credible alternative. Any shift in this balance of preferences could, however, have a big impact on the outlook for the next election.

The Conservative Party is, moreover, rated less favourably on each of the ten policy issues among swing or floating voters than among the electorate as a whole.

Tory voters attach a lower priority to education (36 per cent compared with 49 per cent among all voters) and a much higher priority to immigration and asylum (51 per cent compared with 37 per cent among all voters).

Labour’s lead on the general state of the economy was slightly higher when this question was last asked in March (just before the Budget), at 10 against 13 per cent.

• Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,004 adults aged over 18 by telephone between May 7 and 9. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults.

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