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A new Populus poll for The Times, undertaken over the weekend after last week’s fierce exchanges between the parties, underlines the extent of disillusion with the pre-election campaigning. Four fifths say that they have mainly “just been attacking each other rather than explaining their policies”.
This has made little difference to the parties’ ratings, with Labour on 39 per cent, down two points from last month. The Tories are unchanged on 32 per cent. The Liberal Democrats have picked up two points to 20 per cent from their figure a month ago. These figures are in line with the average for each party in polls this year.
Despite some fluctuation in the headline figures, especially of party leads, the underlying picture is of relative stability in the party shares.
A growing majority of the public believe that public services are good, but there remains a gap between people’s personal experience and their impression of services nationally. The proportion saying that their personal experience of using the NHS is good has risen by seven points to 73 per cent over the past 12 months, while their impression of the national service has risen by eight points to 64 per cent. After adjusting for those saying that their view is bad, the gap between personal experience and national impressions has narrowed from fifteen to five points.
The position is less favourable on schools, where a one-point rise over the past year in a good personal experience to 60 per cent is balanced by an eight-point rise in a bad experience. The national impression of schools has also got worse, with a three-point decline to 52 per cent in the number saying that they are good.
Surprisingly, there has been an improvement in public attitudes on transport, with an eight-point rise to 49 per cent in the number saying that they have had a good personal experience and a six-point rise to 38 per cent in impressions of the national service.
Labour continues to do better among men (40 per cent) than women (36 per cent). The Tories are level-pegging among men and women, while the Liberal Democrats are stronger amongst women (23 per cent) than men (17 per cent).
About a third of voters (35 per cent) say that they now have a “clearer idea of the policies of the main political parties than I did a few weeks ago”, with three fifths (61 per cent disagreeing). Men and over-65s are more likely to say that they have a clearer idea on party policies. Three fifths of the public (58 per cent) say that there does not seem much difference between the parties any more.
These findings tie in with the public’s view of the row between the parties over the case of Margaret Dixon, whose shoulder operation has been postponed several times.
Nearly three quarters of the public (72 per cent) think that “politicians are being cynical when they raise cases like this and do so for party advantage”. Just 21 per cent disagree. Professionals and managers (79 per cent) agree most strongly. Moreover, two thirds of Tory supporters (68 per cent) agree, even though their own party raised the issue.
The public is evenly split (44 to 44 per cent) about the proposition that “cases like this are now very rare in the NHS, which is improving overall”, while more than half the public (55 per cent) thinks that “Mrs Dixon’s operation is not very serious and it is right that other more serious cases should get treatment before her”, with 34 per cent disagreeing.
Fewer than a quarter (22 per cent) agree that “if the Conservatives were in government, their policies for the NHS would bring an end to cases like this”, with 64 per cent disagreeing. Half of Tory voters (49 per cent) think that their party’s policies would end such cases. Surprisingly, more than half the public (55 per cent) claims to take “an active interest in what the political parties say in their campaigns”, with 44 per cent disagreeing.
Two thirds of professionals and managers (66 per cent) say that they are taking an active interest in the party campaigns, compared with just 56 per cent of unskilled manual workers. Less than a third (31 per cent) of new voters, in the 18-to-24 age group, say that they have an active interest, less than in any other age group.
Populus interviewed 1,524 adults aged over 18 by phone between March 4 and 6. Interviews were conducted across the country. The results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. For more details, see www.populuslimited.com
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