THE deadliest form of skin cancer is set to treble in the next 30 years if people go on subathing recklessly, cancer experts said yesterday.

Malignant melanoma affects 7,300 people every year, and causes 1,600 deaths. By 2035, there could be 21,000 new cases every year, which would put melanoma among the top five cancers.

Even if people do behave more sensibly, it will be more than 20 years before rates peak and begin to decline, Professor Brian Diffey of Newcastle General Hospital said yesterday, as Cancer Research UK announced its annual SunSmart campaign.

That is because the cancer takes decades to emerge and many younger people have already suffered enough sunburn to cause it.

Even in Australia, which started prevention campaigns long before Britain, the first signs of a declining rate in some age groups have only just begun to appear.

Professor Diffey said that his research into future trends in skin cancer showed it would take many years before rates started to level off and drop.

“The thing about skin cancer is that we won’t see a slow down next year or the year after. It may be 20 or 30 years before we can see the benefits of these campaigns,” he said.

Rates of malignant melanoma are rising faster than any other type of cancer. Children born in the 1960s have ten times the lifetime risk of those born in the 1910s.

And those born in 1970, who are now in their mid-30s, are being diagnosed with melanoma at the same rate as people who were born in 1930 and did not develop melanoma until their 50s.

The consensus among cancer experts is that sun-worship is behind the increase. In the past 30 years there has been a ten-fold increase in foreign holidays, and those with fair skins are especially at risk from intermittent, intense sun exposure, said Dr Catherine Harwood of St Bartholomew’s and the Royal London Hospital.

Sunbeds may also contribute, but in Professor Diffey’s opinion they account for only about 8 per cent of cases. But Sara Hiom, head of health information for Cancer Research UK, said that she would still like to see stricter regulations and a ban on sunbed use by the under 16s. “We would like to see more of a response in terms of regulation from the industry,” she said. “It is very difficult to get Government regulations about sunbeds.”

As well as trying to reduce exposure to the sun, the campaign is intended to encourage people to seek medical advice sooner. “It is essential that people monitor their moles and skin blemishes and report any changes in them,” Professor Diffey said. “Acting promptly can save lives and early detection and treatment will give many melanoma patients an excellent prognosis.”

Dr Harwood said: “Signs to watch out for include a mole getting bigger, a mole with a ragged outline or one with a mixture of different shades of brown and black.

“If a mole gets inflamed or starts to bleed or itch, then get it checked out.”

More information about the campaign is available at www.sunsmart.org.uk

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