The hole in the side of the Qantas flight QF30 was almost certainly blown out by air escaping from a crack caused by some kind of failure.

It’s like what happens to a balloon when you let go of its neck. But imagine a balloon the size of a 747. You get an absolute gale forcing its way out of the hole and that carries in front of it everything that’s in its way - like a hurricane.

That could have ripped open the baggage container.

It’s possible that there was some kind of explosive devise in the suitcases because there’s a hole where there shouldn’t be. Bags are put into aluminium containers but, as the pictures of the plane show, they aren’t in the aluminium container anymore. It’s possible that the container was blown open, although it’s not certain, but it is interesting to see the bags through the hole. How else could that be if not an explosion?

It need not have been a bomb.

If damage was done to the fuselage then over a period of time a crack could have developed. Without everyone inspecting every part of the fuselage after every use this could have gone unnoticed for years and split and weakened to a point where it blows it out.

It could have been damaged over a number of years and this was the moment it blew. Or damage to the hull weakening the hull bay could have come from some form of corrosive material. Something may have corroded in the hold and the moment came when it couldn’t carry the pressure any more.

There are then three possibilities and I wouldn’t put anyone of them above any other. An explosion, physical damage, or a corrosive which weakened the hull and it gave way.

A hole of that size would not have significantly weakened the strength and structure of the Boeing 747.

The pilot could have carried on at a low altitude to enable the passengers and everybody else to breath. At lower heights planes use a lot more fuel so they would have had to land very quickly. They would have had the Philippines and all the Indonesian islands including Borneo to land in. You are never far from somewhere where you can put down.

David Learmount is Safety Editor of Flight International Magazine

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