MICHAEL HOWARD’S hopes of breaking Labour’s grip on power have suffered a blow with a poll showing that support for him as the next prime minister has slumped. He is now well behind both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, according to the latest Populus poll for The Times.

Mr Howard and the Conservatives have fallen further behind Mr Blair and Labour, with probably only ten months to go before the next general election. The Tories are on 29 per cent, with Labour two points up since early June on 33 per cent.

The poll, undertaken over the weekend, will boost Liberal Democrat hopes of doing well in the two parliamentary by-elections, in Leicester East and Birmingham Hodge Hill, on July 15. The Lib Dems are up two points this month to 24 per cent, the party’s highest rating since last February.

Mr Blair and Mr Brown both trounce Mr Howard as the voters’ preferred prime minister, by margins of around three to two. More-over, support for Mr Howard as prime minister has fallen sharply since February, from 41 to 31 per cent, while backing for Mr Blair has remained unchanged at 47 per cent.

The number of voters preferring Mr Howard has dropped among every social and age group and, even among Tory supporters, is down from 90 to 81 per cent. The poll shows that the success of the UK Independence Party in last month’s European elections is continuing to damage Tory prospects. This is likely only to exacerbate the intense debate among local Conservative activists about whether to co-operate and get closer to the UKIP.

Support for the UKIP is now at 6 per cent in national voting intentions, against 5 per cent last month, and a mere percentage point or two before the European election campaign.

This is the main reason why the Tories are now on 29 per cent, unchanged on last month. This is not only more than three points lower than at the 2001 general election, but is also well below the Tories’ average rating of 35 per cent in the first six months of Mr Howard’s leadership.

The fear among Tory strategists is not only about the impact of the UKIP but also that, as the public makes up its mind about Mr Howard, its verdict is negative.

Support for the Tories has slipped a little among professional and managers, the group of voters which responded most positively to the change of leadership from Iain Duncan Smith to Mr Howard eight months ago. Support among the group rose from 35 to 40 per cent on average after Mr Howard took over. But since May, the average Tory rating in this group has dropped to 33 per cent.

The poll was taken after the Tories’ launch of their “freedom to choose” proposals for health and schools but before their latest initiative, in which the party will today identify scope for huge savings in “wasteful” government spending. It will parade preliminary findings from a review of the public sector headed by David James, the business troubleshooter, in a move which will raise expectations that the party leadership can find room to promise tax cuts.

Oliver Letwin, the Shadow Chancellor, will identify layers of NHS bureaucracy that would be removed by an incoming Tory administration. Similar pledges are to follow on education as Tory spokesmen undertake to cut back laws and regulations.

The Tories’ poor poll showing is despite the unpopularity of Mr Blair and the Government. Support for Labour at 33 per cent compares with an average rating of 37 per cent last year and 42 per cent at the last general election in 2001.

The poll underlines that while Mr Blair and Labour are still preferred to Mr Howard and the Tories, there is an increasing switch to the Liberal Democrats and others.

The Lib Dems’ 24 per cent rating compares with 19 per cent at the 2001 general election. At the same stage of the last Parliament, the Lib Dems’ rating was in the midteens.

Others, including the UKIP, the Greens, the BNP and the nationalist parties, are now on 14 per cent, down three points on last month, during the European election campaign. However, this compares with an average of 8 per cent for others last year.

Party strategists and electoral specialists would expect the total of others to decline as the election approaches, but it could well be higher than the 6.5 per cent of 2001. Even if support for the UKIP fell to half its current level, this could make a difference between winning and losing for some Tories in the South.

• Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,002 adults aged over 18 by telephone on July 2 and 3. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults.

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