AS THE 200th anniversary of the battle of Trafalgar approaches, the frontline fighting strength of the Royal Navy is set to fall below that of the French fleet for the first time since the 18th century.

According to calculations by a leading military think tank, defence cuts will reduce the navy to 39 aircraft carriers, destroyers, frigates and submarines — 10 fewer than at present. The French navy will have 43 frontline ships.

France is likely to have overtaken Britain by the Trafalgar bicentenary in October next year, commemorating the battle when Lord Nelson’s fleet destroyed Napoleon’s navy.

A senior naval source at the Ministry of Defence (MoD) revealed last week that the reductions will be deeper than people had realised.

More than half the navy was not battle-ready because of cash shortages and many vessels were being cannibalised for spare parts, he said. Morale was at a “historic low” and many junior officers were resigning.

“People are leaving in droves because the navy has gone below a critical point where you can maintain a proper career path,” the official said.

Within the next two years the Royal Navy’s manpower will be cut to fewer than 38,000. The French navy numbers 44,500. The cuts will most affect destroyers and frigates, with the present 31 ships reduced to 25. They have already forced Britain to stop patrolling the north Atlantic.

If ships such as patrol boats and minesweepers are added to the total, the French navy is already bigger than Britain’s.

Rodney Craig, a retired naval commander who is now a defence analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, drew up the calculations of the two fleets’ strengths. He pointed out that in future more small ships will be needed for anti-terrorist patrols and other operations.

He added, however, that naval superiority could help France to challenge America and Britain. “For the first time in many years the British navy will be smaller than the French navy. Navies are symbols of power and the decision to cut the navy’s numerical capacity will be watched by our friends and enemies alike,” he said.

The last time a superior French fleet was able to defeat the British was at Chesapeake Bay in 1781 during the American war of independence.

Experts say that the only time France outnumbered Britain in a sea battle in Europe was in 1690 when an Anglo-Dutch fleet was defeated at the battle of Beachy Head off Sussex.

Dr Eric Grove, a naval historian at Hull University, said that Britain and France had competed fiercely to have larger navies for hundreds of years. “We have always prided ourselves on having a larger and better navy throughout history,” he said.

The MoD source claimed that Britain’s navy was in a “critical” state of disrepair. Lack of maintenance and removal of parts from older ships made them potentially dangerous and often unusable during a war.

“Half the fleet (is) not properly or fully manned and maintained,” said the official, who recently visited the navy’s main base at Portsmouth. “It is lack of money and the alternative is to scrap even more ships.”

One French naval official expressed sympathy for his British colleagues. Chief Petty Officer Pasquale Voiteaux, who works at the French embassy in London, said: “Both Britain and France have excellent navies, although they have both seen reductions. All those wars we fought against each other are nothing but ancient history now.”

Nicholas Soames, the Conservative defence spokesman, said: “The navy are very, very unhappy about what is happening. The first duty of any government is to secure the defence of the nation and at a time of extraordinary threat, they (Labour) are cutting back on numbers and manpower.”

An MoD spokesman said: “The technology has got better, so we can do more with fewer platforms. Some of the French vessels are smaller and have more limited capability although they do have a very good navy.”

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