DOOMSDAY plans have been drawn up by the Government to cope with an influenza pandemic. Quarantine centres for sufferers, a makeshift mortuary for hundreds or more dead and even the evacuation of entire cities feature in the plans, The Times has learnt.

An outbreak of a new and deadly flu virus, probably imported from South-East Asia, poses the gravest risk of overwhelming public services, Whitehall planners believe.

Ministers have been advised that a flu pandemic is “overdue”. These tend to occur in 20 to 30-year cycles and there were three in the 20th century, all of which spread worldwide.

The worst was in 1918, when a flu epidemic centred on Bombay, India, spread to Glasgow and then other towns here. Over several months, 228,000 people died in Britain. Worldwide the number of dead was estimated at 20 million.

“The biggest risk facing this country is not terrorism, but a flu epidemic. The statisticians say one is overdue,” a senior government source said. “Some of the details of our planning are very graphic. It keeps me awake at night.”

A serious epidemic in Britain could leave parts of the NHS unable to cope, as many hospitals operate close to capacity already, particularly in London. In this event, health chiefs would try to transfer patients to surrounding hospitals.

Pressure on mortuary facilities is also a key concern. A temporary mortuary is on standby in case there are hundreds of fatalities in one or more communities. The inflatable structure is large enough to hold hundreds of bodies in chilled conditions until they can be buried or cremated.

Thousands of people trying to flee to Britain to escape the virus would be held in quarantine to try to stop it from spreading. They would probably be held in secure children’s accommodation and outdoor activity centres.

As a last resort, the population of a whole town or city would be evacuated if a deadly epidemic within it threatened the rest of the population.

Railway stations and rolling stock would be commandeered and mass movements of people made by train.

The plans assume that local roads would be gridlocked by fleeing families.

Detailed contingency plans for the evacuation of London, codenamed Operation Sassoon, are in place and would be adapted if needed for other cities.

The most likely scenario is thought to be that an outbreak similar to avian flu, which has killed 31 people in Thailand, Vietnam and China, might escalate and spread to Britain through human contact.

The priority would be to halt entry into Britain from affected areas by signing agreements with any affected country for screening at airports to prevent people ill with influenza from boarding flights to Britain. Only if such steps failed or came too late would the more drastic step of holding people in quarantine after their arrival be taken.

Mass vaccination is another option if the disease swept Britain. Large stocks of vaccines are held as a precaution, but sources admit they may be insufficient to inoculate the entire population or may not be effective against a new virus, which would require the development and production of a new vaccine.

Plans for a temporary mortuary and evacuation of towns or cities would take effect only in extreme circumstances.

There were three flu pandemics in the 20th century: Spanish flu in 1918-19, Asian flu in 1957-58 and Hong Kong flu in 1968-69.

Explore UK News

• Crime News

• Education News

• Health News

• Science News

• Scotland News

Times Recommends

• Donor organ allowed child’s own heart to heal
• Michael Jackson: Not the final chapter
• Brüno toned down for 15 rating