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to The Sunday Times
The national science academies of all the G8 countries have issued an unprecedented challenge to their governments, urging immediate action to curb greenhouse gas emissions to fight global warming.
Scientific evidence about the causes and impacts of climate change is now so clear that effective measures to address them can no longer be delayed, the elite institutions said.
The call for firm steps to be agreed at the Gleneagles summit next month puts further pressure on President Bush to sign up to binding emissions controls, particularly as his own country’s National Academy of Science (NAS) is among the signatories.
The strongly-worded statement was also endorsed by the government-sponsored research academies of China, India and Brazil, offering the strongest indications yet that major developing countries are serious about reducing their own contributions to global warming.
A lack of targets for the developing world was one of the key objections cited by the Bush administration when it withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol on climate change in 2001.
The academies also reject another important American argument: that the science of climate change is not yet sufficiently certain to justify action.
"The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify prompt action," the academies’ statement said. "It is vital that all nations identify cost-effective steps that they can take now, to contribute to substantial and long-term reduction in net global greenhouse gas emissions."
While it accepted that climate science will always carry an element of uncertainty, it said: "a lack of full scientific certainty about some aspects of climate change is not a reason for delaying an immediate response that will, at a reasonable cost, prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."
It concluded: "We urge all nations to take prompt action to reduce the causes of climate change, adapt to its impacts and ensure that the issue is included in all relevant national and international strategies."
The agreement of the Russian Academy of Sciences is also significant, as its members, who have previously been more sceptical of the science of global warming than the other institutions, last year advised President Putin not to ratify the Kyoto treaty.
Lord May of Oxford, President of the Royal Society, Britain’s national academy, attacked the American position on global warming as "misguided", pointing out that Mr Bush had repeatedly overruled his own scientists’ advice on the issue.
"President Bush has an opportunity at Gleneagles to signal that his administration will no longer ignore the scientific evidence and act to cut emissions," he said. "It is clear that world leaders, including the G8, can no longer use uncertainty about aspects of climate change as an excuse for not taking urgent action to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
"Significantly, along with the science academies of the G8 nations, this statement’s signatories include Brazil, China and India who are among the largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the developing world. It is clear that developed countries must lead the way in cutting emissions, but developing countries must also contribute to the global effort to achieve overall cuts in emissions. The scientific evidence forcefully points to a need for a truly international effort. Make no mistake we have to act now. And the longer we procrastinate, the more difficult the task of tackling climate change becomes."
Tony Blair has pledged to use Britain’s G8 presidency to make climate change a priority at the Gleneagles summit. While American participation in the Kyoto accord remains unlikely, the Prime Minister remains hopeful that President Bush might agree to long-term emissions controls if countries such as China and India also sign up.
The Kyoto Protocol, which was signed in 2000, demands an average 5.2 per cent cut in emissions by 2010 from developed nations, taking 1990 figures as a baseline. Developing countries were explicitly excluded from any targets, as the industrialised world has made by far the largest historical contribution to greenhouse gases.
American objections predate the Bush administration, in 1999 the Senate voted 95-0 to reject any global warming treaty that did not include developing countries and had the potential to harm the Amercian economy. Its position has hardened since Mr Bush’s election, particularly in the light of increasing domestic concerns about industrial competition from countries such as China and India.
The United States is also more heavily reliant than European countries on coal, which generates more greenhouse gases than natural gas or oil, and its expansive geography and culture of car use mean that substantial emissions cuts would have a more marked effect on the national way of life.
Environmental groups welcomed the statement, though they pointed out that it sets no targets for emissions cuts.
Catherine Pearce of Friends of the Earth said: "The national science academies are right to call for prompt action on climate change. But this document lacks targets or a timetable for urgent action. G8 countries must accept their historic responsibility in creating the problem, and show genuine leadership through annual reductions in emissions.
"It is crucial that the entire world - including the United States - recognises that there is a window of opportunity to avert potentially catastrophic climate change. Emissions must peak and decline within the next decade. The world must act now before it is too late."
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