GREENHOUSE gas emissions from aircraft will double by 2030 even if airlines invest in new fuel-efficient planes, the industry predicted yesterday.

Any savings in average emissions per flight will be eclipsed by the huge growth in air travel forecast for the next 25 years.

British airlines, airports and aerospace manufacturers yesterday published a strategy for improving efficiency, which included an ambitious target for halving emissions per trip.

The Sustainable Aviation group, which includes British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Airbus UK and BAA, the airports operator, has been set up to lobby against environmental taxes on aviation.

The European Commission is investigating the feasibility of a tax on aviation fuel or an emissions charge as an alternative, or in addition, to extending its emissions trading scheme to airlines.

The group aims to introduce new aircraft by 2020 that will produce 50 per cent less carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, than equivalent new aircraft did in 2000.

Other targets include reducing nitrogen oxides by 80 per cent and noise by 50 per cent.

The group admits that improvements in efficiency will not keep pace with the rising number of flights. Roger Wiltshire, the chairman of the group, said: “Growth in demand for air travel may well exceed growth in technology’s ability to offset emissions.”

The Government estimates that passenger numbers will more than double, from 200 million in 2003 to 470 million in 2030. Aircraft carbon dioxide emissions, even assuming that fuel efficiency targets are met, are predicted to increase from 8.8 million tonnes in 2000 to 18 million by 2030.

The group admits that emissions of greenhouse gases at cruising altitude are far more damaging than emissions at ground level. Environmental groups say that the impact is three times greater. At this rate, a passenger on a return flight from London to New York would contribute twice as much to global warming as the average driver does in a year.

The group pledged to cooperate with scientists in investigating the impact of emissions at altitude. It also gave a commitment to report each airline’s fleet fuel efficiency by the end of 2005. This will expose those airlines which have failed to invest in new aircraft.

Airlines will also encourage passengers to make voluntary contributions to offset their carbon emissions. Several projects, including Future Forests and Atmosfair, already offer air passengers the opportunity to pay for carbon-reducing measures such as planting trees.

British Airways is going further by working with customers from large corporations to help them to offset all their carbon dioxide emissions.

Andy Kershaw, BA’s environmental affairs manager, said that the airline would calculate the emissions from all flights booked by a company and then jointly invest in sustainable projects around the world.

The group hopes to persuade the Government that aviation can best help the environment not by reducing its own emissions but by paying for other industries to cut theirs.

Mr Wiltshire rejected calls for environmental taxes on flights, describing them as a “blunt, inappropriate and ineffective weapon”.

But the group admitted that airlines were unlikely to find an alternative to fossil fuels to power aircraft for several decades.

The GreenSkies Alliance, a coalition of environmental groups opposed to the growth of aviation, said that the targets in the strategy were merely commitments to conduct research and that there was no guarantee they would be met.

Jeff Gazzard, the alliance’s co-ordinator, said: “The best that can be said is that this strategy, if it happens — and it’s a really big if — will make things a little less horrible than would otherwise be the case.”

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