THE heather has been scorched to produce the tender, young shoots that red grouse prefer. Sheep have been treated for a tick that is devastating chick populations and predators such as foxes and crows have been trapped or shot.

But 12 months of work to keep the heather moor at Tarabuckle, on the Cortachy Estate in Angus, in tip-top condition will have been in vain this year. Like dozens of other rural estates across Britain, the sound of guns and cries of beaters will not ring out on the purple moors for the Glorious Twelfth today.

At Tarbuckle all shooting has been cancelled for the entire season due to a lack of grouse.

For Mike Nisbet, 55, head keeper, who has worked for Cortachy Estate for 30 years, it is deeply disappointing. In a good year the 5,500-acre hillside beat, which employs three keepers, would enjoy about ten days of driven shoots in a season. This year there will be none with a loss to the local economy of about £50,000.

“The same effort, expense and hard work goes into maintaining the moor in a bad season as a good one,” Mr Nisbet said yesterday. “Our grouse count shows the population is down again by about 20 per cent, which means there is not the surplus for shooting. We have cancelled all grouse shoots this year so we have sufficient stock to carry on into next year, which will hopefully be better.”

The picture at Tarabuckle is repeated across Britain, heralding a less than Glorious Twelfth. In England, which has about 180 grouse moors, the number of shooting days is down about 80 per cent, according to the Moorland Association, provoking predictions of the worst season in half a century and the loss of about £11.2 million to the upland rural economy, particularly North Yorkshire, the Pennines and Northumberland.

The forecast across Scotland’s 450 grouse moors is more complicated, with some areas in dire straits while others are faring better. There is little doubt that a decade of gradual decline has continued, caused by a combination of disease, from sheep ticks and a gut parasite, warmer winters and wetter springs.

Ian McCall, director of the Game Conservancy Trust in Scotland, said: “It is not universally disappointing. It is not catastrophic and on balance Scotland might be better off than England, which is a rare achievement this year. England usually does better because of the kinder climate and fertile soil. But this year they have fewer grouse because they had too many last year and did not shoot enough, which allowed disease to spread.”

The annual count of grouse numbers by the trust shows low populations in the Scottish Borders, Perthshire and Angus. However, the prospects improve in Deeside, Inverness-shire and Speyside. Grouse shooting is estimated to be worth about £20 million to fragile rural economies in Scotland.

The poor 2005 season is expected to send prices for a brace of grouse soaring. They are expected to at least double from an average of £7 to £14 and upwards. The knock-on will be higher prices in hotels and eateries where game is a speciality. Shgoot cancellations are also likely to affect tourism, particularly hotels such as the Lands of Loyal Hotel, at Alyth, in Perth and Kinross, where 25 per cent of its business is directly linked to shooting parties.

Moris Mackenzie, executive chef at the Lands of Loyal Hotel, said: “The cancellation of shoots will have a knock-on effect from landowners, to shooters, to keepers and beaters, to whatever surplus is available to serve at the table. Prices could go through the roof.”

One bright aspect is new research showing that heather moorland managed for shooting is a haven for other wildlife and rare upland birds, such as black grouse, golden plovers, curlew and lapwing.

A study published by the Countryside Alliance and the National Gamekeepers’ Organisation reveals that black grouse and upland waders are six times more likely to breed successfully on moorland where heather management and predator control takes place than they would on unmanaged woodland.

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