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Anxious to press on with a radical domestic agenda, including expanding choice in hospitals and schools, the Prime Minister will find that the most urgent problems are the familiar ones of terrorism and Iraq.
But, after a summer of stories about drunken youths rampaging through city centres, Mr Blair wants to step up his assault on antisocial behaviour, asking the courts to make more use of the powers that he has given them and, if necessary, to lock up the worst offenders.
Having delayed his holiday to announce new anti- terrorism measures after the bombings in London, Mr Blair will swiftly come under pressure to explain how far he intends to go in his efforts to clamp down on the so-called preachers of hate who are trying to encourage violent radicalism among Britain’s young Muslim population.
He will also have an early decision to make on whether Parliament should be recalled the week after next for a debate on the proposals that he and Charles Clarke outlined during the summer recess.
Mr Blair has let it be known that he fully supports the Home Secretary after reports at the weekend that he was dissatisfied with his performance.
In Iraq, Mr Blair and the West are looking at the prospect of continuing violence as Sunni Muslims campaign against a new constitution that was passed against their wishes by the Parliament with Shia and Kurdish support. As the bloodshed goes on, he will be pressed to give an indication of when British troops will start to leave.
Mr Blair has spent some of his holiday writing his speech to the Labour conference in Brighton next month. It will be one of his last conference addresses as Prime Minister but almost certainly not the final one.
With the word being put out that Mr Blair is more determined than ever to secure a lasting legacy, he will try to convince sceptical unions and party members that his efforts to bring more choice and diversity into hospitals through widening provision — while not compromising the principle of free services at the point of delivery — are in line with Labour values.
Similarly, he wants to show that his plans to give more freedom to schools to turn themselves into city academies fit with Labour’s aim of providing more opportunity for all.
Cabinet committees will be summoned over the next few weeks to approve White Papers on hospitals, schools, Mr Blair’s much-vaunted “respect” agenda and welfare reform. A report from Adair Turner on the state of Britain’s pensions is expected in the autumn. That will prompt legislation but is unlikely to include a move to compulsory second pensions, which many experts believe to be necessary to prevent a crisis in provision within 20 years.
Veteran observers of the relationship between Gordon Brown and Mr Blair will be watching for any signs that the Chancellor is trying to block elements of the public service reforms. Mr Brown believes that there are limits to the role of the markets in health provision, as shown by his successful effort to limit the powers of foundation hospitals. But Cabinet ministers close to both of them predict that there will be no attempt to rock the boat. Mr Brown remains the favourite to succeed Mr Blair.
Along with antisocial behaviour, Mr Blair will have to decide how to deal with the growing campaign against measures to relax the licensing laws.
After a few days of frantic activity in Downing Street, the Prime Minister flies off to India and China next weekend. As President of the European Council, Mr Blair will try to reassure the Chinese over the recently imposed EU quotas on clothes imports and to prevent escalation into a trade war.
WHAT’S ON THE AGENDA?
TERRORISM How tough will the new anti-terrorism laws be and will the judges throw them out anyway? Should he recall Parliament next month?
ANTISOCIAL BEHAVIOUR After a summer of stories about “yob Britain”, wants the courts to use the powers he has given them.
24-HOUR DRINKING A determined campaign has built up against the laws due to come into force in November. Must convince the public that they will result in less binge drinking, not more.
IRAQ Can the insurgency be contained and will the constitution be approved?
SCHOOLS, HOSPITALS, PENSIONS AND “RESPECT” White Papers on these issues will soon have to be approved. Will they be as radical as he wants or will Gordon Brown dig in his heels?
THE ECONOMY Consumer sales have declined and the housing market is stagnating. Can tax rises be avoided?
TRAVELS Off to India and China next week. Can he prevent a trade war over new EU quotas on Chinese imports?
CONFERENCE SPEECH Must convince party and the unions that widening provision in the health service and education is fully in line with Labour’s traditional values.
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