Philip Webster, Political Editor of The Times, looks at the prospects for Kenneth Clarke, who launched his third attempt to win the leadership of the Conservative Party today:

"Clearly he thinks he has a chance and there is no way that Ken Clarke would have entered this race if he didn't firmly believe he would win. But he has a lot of ground to make up on David Davis, the long-time favourite.

"Over what will now be a very long leadership contest, Mr Clarke will have to swing a lot of MPs who have already declared their support for other candidates and to win the support of independent MPs.

"In his favour, Mr Clarke has rapidly become second favourite this morning, edging out David Cameron, the other main contender, in most of the odds I've seen. He is also on a bit of a roll and clearly pleased to have the thing underway. Mr Davis is at his constituency, Mr Cameron is away and Mr Clarke is in Westminster, where he loves to be.

"But in some ways, the numbers are against him because many of the people who supported him the last time he ran, in 2001, have either left the party or declared their support for David Davis. He needs to pick up an awful lot of support from the new MPs, from the intakes of 2001 and 2005.

"So he has a mountain to climb, and if you asked me if I think he will win, I would say that I doubt it.

"But could he win? Yes. He could win if he gets on a roll and if a succession of polls show what his supporters claim: that the general public believes he would be the leader of the Conservative Party who will be most capable of defeating Labour at the next election.

"As for his age, I think it's worth looking at what Anne Widdecombe said this morning, when she said that the only gains the Tories have made in the last decade were at the last election, when the party was led by Michael Howard, who is in his sixties, rather than by younger leaders.

"She didn't say it, but the difference between Ken Clarke and Michael Howard is that while they are both older men, Mr Clarke is genuinely popular with the wider public and clearly has a lot of appeal.

"In the past, the Conservatives chose William Hague, who was young, and Ian Duncan Smith, who wasn't really considered young, but who was favoured by the grass-roots for ideological reasons.

"I think what Anne Widdecombe really meant to say today was that the Tories have gone for youth, they've gone for ideology and now they might as well go for a bloke who can win."

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