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But the Conservative party’s electoral fortunes do not reflect this reality. What struck me as I watched the results tumble in on election night this year is that very little seems to have changed for the party since 1997. It has been in a persistent vegetative state for eight years, and nothing short of a complete rebirth will halt its drift into electoral oblivion.
That is why I decided to heed Michael Howard’s call for a wideranging debate on the future of the party by exploring the views of leading politicians and commentators. The responses, published this month in a book called From the Ashes, address one question: what political agenda should the Conservative party pursue to help secure victory at the next election? The challenge is considerable. Almost all the contributors agree that the last parliament, “for all its tactical successes, was a strategic failure”.
In 1992 the Tories polled 14m votes and in 2005 only 8.8m. Over the last two elections Labour has lost 9% of the vote it got in 1997, yet Conservative support has risen just 1.5%. And as MP Andrew Lansley points out: “For every vote gained direct from Labour in 2005, the Liberal Democrats gained two.”
Andrew Cooper, from the polling company Populus, adds that among under-35s, the age group among whom the Tories did best in 1979, the party came third in 2005. Though it won more votes than Labour in England, the Conservative vote still fell in half the regions of England. Support among ABC1s and women — historically the bedrock when the party was winning — also fell significantly.
Nor can any comfort, Cooper argues, be taken from the number of seats won. Of the 31 gained from Labour, 18 were won not because of voters switching from Labour to the Conservatives but from Labour votes swinging to the Liberal Democrats.
What can be done? Archie Norman, the former Asda boss and one-time MP for Tunbridge Wells, appears to agree with the Harvard psephologist Pippa Norris: “As in therapy, the first step towards recovery is to recognise a problem; the second is summoning a will to change.” Conservatives, Norman adds, have a cosy desire to believe that nothing is fundamentally wrong.
“The orthodoxy after 1997 was that Tony Blair and new Labour were not the real thing,” he says. The latter version of this delusion is that “they have failed to deliver and are wrecking the economy”. In short, the Tory view of new Labour highlights a gulf between the Conservative party and the rest of the country.
If the problem is now being recognised, is there the will to change? It would seem so since all the leadership contenders argue for reaching out to voters on issues that the party has not emphasised in recent times. Indeed, a number of consistent themes are emerging that could form the basis of a Conservative revival.
Nick Gibb MP and Lansley argue that a Tory revival depends on winning back public trust. As Lansley puts it: “We can have all the policies we like, even policies the public like, but if the public do not trust us, they will not endorse our policies.”
To win trust, Conservatives have to realise that conventional adversarial and tribal politics are a turn-off for the electorate. Tactical opportunism, such as opposing the government when it is right, only diminishes the Tories in the eyes of voters.
MPs, as the leadership contender David Cameron argues, should behave in the Commons as they do in their constituencies — as proper public servants. Conservative MPs therefore have to deny themselves the easy “attack dog” options and apply the test of “what would we do if we were in government”. Instead of seeking to lower Labour in the voters’ eyes “we need to apply ourselves to elevating our position in the view of fellow citizens”, argues Michael Gove, MP for Surrey Heath.
To elevate themselves and broaden their appeal with the voters, the Conservatives have to confront the perception that theirs is the party of privilege by demonstrating that it cares for ordinary people. It seems the left in Britain has monopolised the politics of compassion as Conservatives have too often sounded like the “Economics party”, knowing the cost of everything but the value of nothing.
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