MORE than one in four Scots will be a pensioner in 25 years’ time compared with fewer than one in five now, raising serious implications for the country’s economy.

The latest population projections indicate that while the number of Scots of working age is expected to fall by 7 per cent from 3.18 million now to 2.97 million in 2031, those of pensionable age will increase dramatically by almost 35 per cent, from 970,000 to 1.3 million in 2031.

The statistics raise the spectre of Scotland, with fewer people paying tax and contributing to economic growth, struggling to fund the health, welfare and other needs of a growing army of the elderly.

Duncan McNiven, Scotland’s Registrar-General, gave a gloomy warning that there was little or nothing that could be done to reverse the trend. He told a press conference in Edinburgh: “There’s no way you can fill in the decline in the working age population by heaping in more migrants and if you did you would merely be postponing the problem to the point where they age.

“You’re not going to fix the problem of the change in the age structure because that’s the effect of the baby booms of the past. There’s too much of a head of demographic steam behind that population change — it’s too big to be able to be filled in by migration or really by any increase in the birth rate or decrease in the death rate.”

The only bright note is that the decline in Scotland’s population is expected to slow compared with previous predictions. The population is not now expected to fall below the landmark five million level until 2036, 19 years later than the earlier forecast of 2017 and 27 years behind the original prediction two years ago of 2009.

Indeed, Scotland experienced a net influx of 26,000 people last year, mainly from the European Union accession states, but that number is expected to fall to 4,000 from 2008.

Jack McConnell, the First Minister, alive to the economic dangers of an ageing, shrinking population, has launched his Fresh Talent Initiative, aimed at attracting skilled migrants and graduates, and alleviating the damaging impact on the country’s already struggling economic growth rate.

Next week, the First Minister will be in Canada promoting Scotland as a modern, forward-looking economy and hoping to attract investment from the Scottish diaspora across the Atlantic. Further trips to Australia and South Africa, where there are also sizeable communities of Scottish exiles, are in the pipeline.

While the overall Scottish population is expected to hover around the 5.1 million mark until 2019, it will then go into slow and steady decline, falling to 4.86 million by 2044. Rough predictions suggest that it could even fall as low as 4.28 million by 2074.

The rise until 2019 will be accounted for by slightly more births, slightly fewer deaths and more people coming to Scotland than leaving.

Mr McNiven said: “But we will still be an ageing nation because our birth rate has declined since the 1980s and our population is likely to fall from 2020, while the rest of the UK is on a rising trend. It is a serious problem but it’s not a crisis because it’s not an immediate, pressing issue . . . it can be planned for.”

While Scotland’s population is projected to be in decline by 2031, the UK population as a whole will still be rising and will have increased from 59.8 million to 67 million.

A close examination of yesterday’s statistics throws into stark relief how Scotland’s population profile will change. While there are 328,000 Scots aged 15 to 19 now, that number will drop to 263,000 by 2031. The number of 30 to 34-year-olds will fall from 344,000 to 288,000, while the number of 70 to 74-year-olds will increase from 211,000 to 305,000. The number of 85 to 89-year-olds will increase from 54,000 to 121,000.

Mr McConnell put the best face possible on the figures. He welcomed the forecast that the number of people living in Scotland would not fall below five million until after 2019 but repeated his warning that Scotland was still facing a significant demographic challenge. “The figures dispel, once and for all, the notion that there is a brain drain from Scotland, that Scotland is haemorrhaging its brightest and best. This is good news. But we must not allow ourselves to be complacent in the long-term interests of our country.”

He said the statistics meant there were fewer working age people and therefore fewer people to boost the economy and pay for public services such as health, education and transport.

Scotland, he said, must “reach out” to those presently economically inactive to get them back to work. “At the same time, we will attract fresh talent to Scotland — to fill skills gaps, and just as importantly, to contribute to the dynamism and vibrancy of our local communities.”

There are 3.28 people of working age for every pensioner in Scotland at the moment. By 2010 it will be 3.56, by 2020 it will have gone down to 3 and by 2031 there will be just 2.26 people of working age for every pensioner. By 2041 it will have declined further to just over 2 people of working age to every pensioner.

In the UK as a whole, the number of people of state pensionable age is projected to increase from 11.1 million in 2004 to 12.2 million in 2010 and 15.3 million by 2031. In Scotland now there are 32,100 (3.3 per cent) fewer children than people of state pensionable age. By 2031 there will be 515,300 (39.4 per cent) fewer children.

Murdo Fraser, the Scottish Conservatives’ enterprise spokesman, said that there was no comfort in the long term in the figures. “All the evidence shows that the underlying factor for any population is the strength of the economy. If the Scottish Executive is serious about addressing the endemic problem of population decline, then it must look to tackle Scotland’s economic underperformance relative to the rest of the UK,” he said.

SHRINKING AS WE GET OLDER

Italy, Germany and seven of the new EU accession states in eastern Europe are among the countries with a projected population decline that exceeds Scotland’s over the next 30 years.

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