THE outlook is getting worse. Fresh from predicting the coldest winter for a decade, the Met Office is forecasting a drought and hosepipe bans to follow.

It has warned that, besides being cold, the winter could be unusually dry, meaning reservoirs depleted by a dry summer and autumn will not be refilled.

The warning illustrates how 10 years of warm wet winters have left Britain unprepared for the much colder ones that used to be the norm. Malcolm Wicks, the energy minister, has already warned that Britain cannot store enough gas to meet a winter surge in demand, though he dismissed claims that factories might have to impose a three-day week as scaremongering.

Last week the realisation that energy rationing may be followed by water shortages prompted Elliot Morley, the environment minister, to summon senior water industry figures and Baroness Young, chief executive of the Environment Agency, to a meeting to plan a response.

Morley said the government was taking the warnings seriously: “We want to make it easier for water companies to declare their areas ‘water stressed’, giving them the legal right to impose measures like compulsory meters in homes.”

England’s water problems have been growing worse for years, especially in East Anglia, London, the home counties and the southwest. Next year, however, they could become acute. This autumn has already seen 40% less rainfall than usual.

The Met Office says there is a two in three chance of its predicted cold dry winter coming true, with fears it could be as bad as the winter of 1962-63, the worst in the past 50 years.

Britain froze from December 1962 to the beginning of March 1963. Ice floes on the Thames knocked against Tower Bridge in London, the sea froze out to half a mile at Herne Bay, Kent, and a 36-hour blizzard with 70mph gusts of wind buried much of western England in snow with 20ft drifts.

Ewen McCallum, chief meteorologist at the Met Office, said: “If our predictions are right, then the coming winter is likely to be dominated by easterly winds from the Continent, bringing very cold dry air.

“It means the water companies could be struggling because they rely on winter rains to restock the reservoirs.”

Until recently it would have been inconceivable to make such firm predictions so far ahead. Recently, however, the Met Office acquired new systems that give forecasters much more information about the influences controlling Britain’s long-term weather patterns.

A major element of this is Argo, a network of 1,500 free-floating buoys that drift around the Atlantic equipped with sensors to measure the ocean’s temperature and salinity.

They also contain a device that changes their buoyancy, allowing them to sink to a depth of 3,000ft then float back up. As they drift up and down they take measurements, relaying the data via satellites whenever they break the surface.

Since last May Argo has been recording big temperature anomalies around the north Atlantic. The anomalies stretch from southwest of Iceland down to the equator.

They show that water in the western margins of the north Atlantic is about 1C cooler than normal, while the seas to the south and north have warmed by about the same amount.

The Met Office has reanalysed data gathered by ships in previous years, finding this year’s pattern closely matches those seen before other harsh winters such as 1962-63.

Last week’s predictions galvanised local authorities and other agencies, with orders being placed for rock salt, snow ploughs and other equipment.

Health trusts have also drawn up plans for a surge in hospital admissions.

Young said similar planning was now needed to deal with possible water shortages. “We must provide incentives to cut demand by clearly costing water through metering in areas where water is in short supply,” she said.

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