Nigel Hawkes, Times health editor, explains why Britain has run out of flu vaccine and warns that some people may die as a result

Why is there are a shortage of vaccine? Are the "worried well" really to blame?

Thanks to fears over bird flu, people appear to be more motivated this year to get the jab - even though it would not protect them against avian flu, should it become a pandemic. The fears, whipped up by the World Health Organisation's forecasts of millions of deaths in a pandemic has raised the profile of flu and sent more people to their GPs for the seasonal jab. These will include some "worried well", but only individual GPs know how many.

Such people are perfectly entitled to seek immunisation, and GPs to provide it - although not on the NHS.

Can the Government order extra doses?

In limited amounts. It has already ordered 400,000 doses, which are almost exhausted. Another 200,000 are on order but will not arrive until right at the end of the flu season. Negotiations are in progress for more, but world supplies are limited so it is not clear how much they will get, or how much they will have to pay.

If you qualify for a jab and have not had one yet, will you still be able to get one?

That depends on your GP. They place orders based on previous years' experience, and have a strong financial incentive not to over-order. If they are left with vaccine on their hands, it costs them money. So if they based their orders on last year's experience, and have been overwhelmed with unexpected applicants this year, it is entirely possible that they will not have enough to cover all the "at-risk" group.

How virulent is this year's flu expected to be?

Fortunately, there is no evidence that it will be particularly nasty. So far, it looks like another mild flu year in a run that now goes back five winters. So a shortage of vaccine should not be a disaster.

Will this shortage end up costing lives?

It might, because there are always a lot of deaths in which flu is a contributory factor - about 12,000 in a typical year. Flu vaccine does reduce deaths, particularly in residential homes. So if there are people who should have the jab and cannot get it, they may die where they otherwise wouldn't. On the other hand, if all the 14.5 million doses ordered by GPs plus the 600,000 contingency does are administered, there will probably be greater cover than ever before. It comes down to the question of whether the vaccine has been given to lots of people who don't desperately need it, at the cost of some who do. And that we cannot answer.

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