Download 'Too Hot', an exclusive Specials track from iTunes
The YouGov poll, commissioned by The Sunday Times, finds that 44% of Scots want independence, compared with 42% who favour continued rule from Westminster.
The poll shows support for independence has almost doubled since 2000, a year after the founding of the Scottish parliament. Devolution at that point seemed to have damped down nationalist feeling, with ICM finding only 23% of Scots favouring full independence.
Alex Salmond, the Scottish National party leader, has said he intends to hold a referendum on independence if he wins power. Next year is the 300th anniversary of the Act of Union.
Tony Blair’s difficulties and voters’ discontent with policies such as the Iraq war are believed to have contributed to a drop in support for Labour in Scotland and fed through into increased backing for independence.
Some Labour MSPs want the prime minister to resign quickly because they believe his unpopularity is putting the future of the Union at risk. “A lot of us are worried, especially with what’s been going on in London, that the whole thing is going to blow apart if we become disunited and forget the bigger picture,” said one.
Last Friday Gordon Brown, the chancellor, who will mastermind Labour’s campaign for next May’s Scottish elections, spoke out against nationalist sentiment with a warning that independence would be economically disastrous and force millions of Scots to classify relatives in England as foreigners.
The YouGov findings also reflect a disenchantment among voters at the limitations of devolved government. While the parliament at Holyrood has the power to legislate in areas such as health, education and transport, it has limited financial powers and is dependent on a block transfer from the Treasury for most of its budget.
In Scottish elections, the electorate are allowed to vote twice, first for a group of MSPs elected in a Westminster-style first-past-the-post system and second for a group elected by proportional representation.
The poll of 1,200 Scots voters, conducted at the height of the prime minister’s difficulties between Tuesday and Thursday last week, showed the SNP at 29% for the first ballot, just one point behind Labour.
The Nationalists were ahead of Labour on the second ballot by 29% to 27%.
Scottish voters have proved immune to the “Cameron effect”, however, despite the Tory revival in England. The Conservatives are backed by just 14% of voters, below the Liberal Democrats.
If repeated at a Holyrood election, the result would give the nationalists 38 out of 129 seats, enough to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Labour’s current governing partners, and the Greens. Labour would remain the biggest party with 42 seats, down from 50.
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the power of collective thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Media Hub Home Entertainment System
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
per month on 36-month
Personal Contract Hire (PCH)
2008
42850
Car Insurance
£24,250 - £30,346
MI5
London
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Fabulous Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers Including Virgin Atlantic Flights Prices Start From Only £699pp!
Last Minute Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers. Med From £499pp, Caribbean From £699pp!
5 star quality at a 3 star price.
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.