Half the world’s surface will be gripped by drought by the end of the century, the Met Office said yesterday.

Extreme droughts will multiply tenfold to cover a third of the Earth’s surface, while moderate droughts will double to affect half the landmass.

Research by Eleanor Burke, of the Hadley Centre of Climate Prediction and Research, which is part of the Met Office, said computer modelling suggests that the rate of drying will almost double halfway through the century and that greenhouse gas emissions are at least in part to blame.

For the past 50 years the world has dried out to the extent that 3 per cent of land is gripped by extreme drought compared with 1 per cent in 1950. A quarter suffers from moderate drought.

In Britain, which is predicted to have much wetter winters and drier summers, water supplies should be able to be maintained throughout the year. However, where water is already limited the effects are likely to be severe, with tens of millions in Africa displaced.

Dr Burke told the climate clinic at the Conservative Party conference in Bournemouth yesterday that the outlook is bleak. The study will be published this month in the Journal of Hydrometeorology.

Andrew Pendleton, of Christian Aid, which works in areas devastated by drought, said of the findings: “This means the death sentence for many people. It’s Rwanda a thousand times over. If we fail to act now we are effectively committing genocide.”

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