The IRA’s campaign “is over”, declared Tony Blair, 14 months after the IRA said that its campaign was, well, over.

In Belfast, Peter Hain, the Northern Ireland Secretary, was calling it “seismic”, “historic”, “irreversible”, “fantastic” and “excellent”. Even so, it is not going to change the Rev Ian Paisley’s mind about sharing power with Sinn Fein. Not, at least, by Mr Hain’s November 24 deadline.

The Government is throwing all its spinning skills at the IMC report in advance of next week’s talks in St Andrews. While Mr Blair, Bertie Ahern, the Irish Prime Minister, and all the Northern Ireland parties will be there, the person who counts most is Mr Paisley.

For so many decades the “Dr No” of Ulster politics, this near-biblical figure now stands at the threshold of his greatest political triumph.

He can choose to become Northern Ireland’s First Minister. But to do so he must accept Martin McGuinness, his nemesis, as his deputy.

There is no doubt that “the Doc” is sorely tempted. The history books would have to revise their interpretations of his influence on the Irish problem from being an obstacle to the deliverer of a peaceful solution. But he is mightily afraid of being taken for a sucker by the Provos as David Trimble was. While he got a peerage for his troubles but left the Ulster Unionist Party broken by his experiences of sharing power with Sinn Fein, whose military wing continued to kill, rob, subvert, spy, recruit and train.

The IMC report says that it has now stopped doing all these things. In truth, it had already said most of this in its previous reports, but yesterday’s document was always going to be its showstopper, choreographed to roll out a red carpet to Mr Blair’s last crack at solving the Irish question.

The IMC’s conclusions were almost so predictable that it was the gaps in the picture it painted which stood out.

Curious, for example, that it could only, rather lamely, say that it did not have enough information to ascribe blame for the murder of Denis Donaldson, the Sinn Fein double agent shot dead in a Donegal cottage after his public confession to be working for “the Brits”. You might have thought the IMC would at least venture an opinion on the widely circulated informed speculation that IRA members were responsible.

If they choose, there is enough here for the Democratic Unionists to argue that the republican movement has not yet moved far enough down the path of peaceful, democratic methods. It is Mr Paisley’s call.

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