The furore over the release of the Lockerbie bomber increased last night over the medical advice given to the Scottish government on how long he has to live.

It emerged that the prognosis that Abdel Baset Ali al-Megrahi had a life expectancy of only three months or less was supported by an unnamed doctor who had no expertise in terminal prostate cancer. The final report on al-Megrahi's condition, which went to Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Secretary, was drawn up by Dr Andrew Fraser, director of health and care with the Scotttish Prison Service.

The three-month time limit is important because Scottish Prison Service guidance says that compassionate release from prison “may be considered where a prisoner is suffering from a terminal illness and death is likely to occur soon. There are no fixed time limits but life expectancy of less than three months may be considered an appropriate period”.

Dr Fraser’s report says: “Whether or not prognosis is more or less than three months, no specialist ‘would be willing to say’.”

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• Medical report on al-Megrahi

Dr Fraser’s report, however, also contains a reference to the “opinion” of an unnamed doctor — thought to be a GP — who, says that the report, “dealt with him prior to, during and following the diagnosis of metastatic prostate cancer”.

It adds: “Having seen him during each of these stages, his clinical condition has declined significantly over the last week \. The clinical assessment, therefore, is that a three-month prognosis is now a reasonable estimate for this patient.”

Last night political opponents at Holyrood were claiming that the conclusion reached by Dr Fraser was based on what the unnamed GP had said and had not taken into sufficient account the more guarded views of the prostate cancer specialists.

Dr Richard Simpson, a Labour MSP and a former associate member of the British Association of Urological Surgeons and member of its prostate cancer working group, has raised doubts about the prognosis.

He said: “The Scottish government has misrepresented the medical evidence. The Justice Secretary chose to disregard the advice of specialists and release al-Megrahi on the opinion of one doctor, who we now know was not a specialist.

“At the very least, Kenny MacAskill should have sought a second opinion confirming the patient’s prognosis from a specialist in palliative care. That he did not do so showed a disregard for due process and the significance of the decision.”

However, the Scottish government has dismissed the claims. A spokesman said that Dr Fraser had arrived at the prognosis based on information provided by all the various medical experts who assessed that Mr al-Megrahi’s condition had declined. He added that the GP was “in close consultation with a highly experienced NHS consultant oncologist of many years’ experience. This view is based upon an analysis of all of the views expressed and the consensus of the medical experts that the condition of Mr al-Megrahi was now entering its final stages.”

Meanwhile, Jonathan Waxman, Professor of Oncology at Imperial College London, and founder of the Prostate Cancer Charity, said that survival rates are based on the statistical average drawn from thousands of patients, and can vary widely. “All that experts can do is give an average survival time,” he said.

The tests that measure the speed at which prostate-specific antigen (PSA), a protein produced by cells of the prostate gland, spread through the body show how fast the disease is spreading, and can therefore indicate a likely survival time. If it is caught early enough then the disease can be controlled and the patient can survive for many years.

For some people the survival period may be nine months, for others it can be 15 to 18 months. But if the level of PSA doubles within three months, then it is an indication that the patient is likely to die sooner rather than later. One of the many unknowns in the case of al-Megrahi is the results of any PSA tests that may have been taken.

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