Royal Mail’s chief executive has painted a bleak picture of the industry’s future — and warned that the current strife could result in people deciding that this was the year they would stop sending Christmas cards.

Adam Crozier, in his first public appearance since the national strike was called, said that he expected mail volumes to decline by up to 40 per cent in the next three or four years, adding that the strike was compounding the company’s problems.

Before talks on Monday between Royal Mail and the Communication Workers Union (CWU) brokered by the TUC, Mr Crozier admitted that the crucial Christmas market could disappear this year.

“It is a big worry,” he told the Andrew Marr Show on BBC One. “The danger of the strike is that the trend that is there already gets exacerbated by this and that people speed up [the move away from] not just sending Christmas cards but paying bills by direct debit or standing order. People all over the country have changed the way they communicate.”

Mr Crozier said he hoped that “common sense would prevail” at the talks on Monday morning and that the three-day strike involving up to 120,000 workers due to start on Thursday was averted.

The two-day strike last week left a backlog of at least 30 million items, with union leaders warning that a further three-day action could leave up to 150 million letters and packets stranded.

Peace talks between the two sides broke down last week amid claim and counter-claim.

Mr Crozier said that both sides accepted the need to modernise amid declining mail volumes, and rival operators meant that there would be further job losses. About 63,000 have already been lost in recent years.

He declined to put a figure on job cuts, saying: “Every single postal operator across the world is fully expecting that in three or four years’ time they will be handling 30 to 40 per cent less mail than they do today. And the reason you can’t ever put a finite number on how many jobs is simply because our market in the letter side is shrinking all the time, whilst at the same time we’re growing our business massively in terms of packets and parcels.”

He said that London postal workers had been among the most vociferous opponents of Royal Mail’s modernisation plans, which could mean computerised mail sorting and sequencing systems and the closure of up to half of its mail sorting and delivery offices.

The company is also introducing changes to working conditions. Liam Byrne, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said yesterday, as he awarded Royal Mail management marks of seven out of ten for its implementation of modernisation plans, that London was a trouble hotspot for the company.

Billy Hayes, the CWU general secretary, welcomed the fresh round of talks at the TUC but said that Mr Crozier was “in denial” about the impact that modernisation was having on “deeply disgruntled” postal workers.Mr Hayes, who last week accused Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, of sabotaging peace talks, said that the union was always reviewing its substantial funding of the Labour Party. He added: “But the fact is if Labour want to win the next election, upsetting postal workers and not being active in making sure we get a settlement of this dispute is no way to win an election.”

Lord Mandelson welcomed the TUC discussions as “a real opportunity to break the deadlock” and dismissed claims that he had been orchestrating Royal Mail’s handling of the dispute.

Season's greetings

Royal Mail delivers 750 million Christmas cards every year, although the emergence of e-cards is a growing threat to the industry, with individuals and businesses sending hundreds of millions of online greetings in recent years.

The Royal Mail is advising customers who intend to send Christmas cards 1st class to post them by December 21 to be sure they arrive by Christmas Day.

Charities earn about £50 million a year from selling cards but benefit less than many purchasers expect. A Which? survey last week found that on average only 13 per cent of the card price went to the charity.

Queen Victoria sent the first “official” Christmas card.

US presidents are among the world’s most prolific Christmas card senders, with the Bush White House sending more than one million in 2002. The cost of postage alone was estimated at $370,000.

Sir Henry Cole, later the founder of the Victoria and Albert Museum, commissioned what is believed to be the first commercially printed Christmas card in 1843.

Only 1,000 cards of the first design were printed and sold at the high price of one shilling each (5p). About 20 are thought to have survived.

One of the original hand-painted cards sold for £8,469 at auction in 2005.

Source: Times database

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