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The demand for new housing from immigrants means that 65,000 new homes — equivalent to a city the size of Peterborough — will have to be built every year for the next two decades.
Migrationwatch UK, a specialist think tank, says there would be no need for the government to build on large areas of the green belt were it not for the projected influx of 130,000 immigrants a year until 2026.
“If immigration and emigration were roughly in balance it would eliminate the need for the government’s massive proposed increase in the housing programme and would greatly alleviate the need for ‘concreting over the southeast’ and the huge pressure on the environment that will result,” its report says.
The study is based on an analysis of a report on household projections earlier this month by John Prescott, the deputy prime minister. The report said the number of households in England would rise from 20.9m in 2003 to 25.7m in 2026, an annual growth of 209,000.
Critics say the overall increase of nearly 5m homes — or 23% — will place a huge burden on the public sector, with billions of pounds extra required for new schools, hospitals and roads.
The report by the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (ODPM) said that about 60% of the projected growth would be in eastern England, London, the southeast and the southwest. Much of the additional growth compared with earlier official estimates will be in the northwest, Yorkshire and Humberside and in the Midlands.
Prescott has already laid out plans for four “growth areas” in the next 30 years, with 370,000 new homes in the Milton Keynes-south Midlands area; 322,000 in the London-Cambridge corridor; 80,000 in the Thames gateway and 31,000 around Ashford, Kent.
In fact the government’s projection of annual net migration of 130,000 has already had to be increased to 145,000 a year.
The study found that immigration was the biggest single reason for the projected growth in homes, accounting for 32%. The other reasons include a natural increase in the adult population (28%); more single households (21%); and more pensioners (19%).
The study says: “A further important consideration is the extent to which it will become necessary to build on greenfield sites.”
Figures for 2004 showed that 74% of new homes had been built on “brownfield” sites, those that were previously developed. “It follows that the 32% extra demand stemming from immigration is largely responsible for the need to build on greenfield sites,” says the study.
Sir Andrew Green, the group’s chairman, accused the government of sweeping the issue of immigration under the carpet. “The spin put on the story was that it was the growth of one-person households that was the principal cause of the housing requirement, giving the impression that this is caused simply by social trends.”
The ODPM denied failing to mention the role of immigration in its latest report.
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