"He is a man that likes to have a holiday. He won't have done this lightly and it won't be for appearance.

"I think he's been moved to do this because negotiations are nearing the end. He didn't want to be in the air today because it is a long flight and he didn't want to be incommunicado and not be able to speak to President Bush and other world leaders.

"I think he wouldn't have done it for any other reason than that he feels he needs to be on the phone today. Had he been in Barbados already he would not have minded. I think it’s just that he feels there is something that he can do today. It looks like Monday is the day it's [the resolution] is to be tabled.

"They are probably taking it a day at a time. I think we have seen that already with his comments yesterday that he would leave for holiday today. He talked to Kofi Annan last night and after that felt his services could be employed today. I should imagine that he will leave tomorrow.

"Blair had hoped that a UN resolution would be passed on Tuesday and that's been moved a bit. The US has been nearing an agreement, but not quite. In theory, we are a week behind so there has been a week more conflict. The pressure on Blair will lift once the resolution has been reached, and with it a ceasefire.

"Labour MPs will still be unhappy with him. The Middle East is an area that a lot of MPs care very much about. He's sat 100 per cent with President Bush rather than having a distinctive British position and that serves to remind them that he's out of step on foreign policy with the party.

"In September, Blair really wants to have a major push to reviving the Middle East peace process and making a lasting change. He will be thinking a lot about this while he is on holiday. I think he has been given the nod from Bush that he can get involved. This will be something that Labour MPs will be quite pleased about that again will take the heat off him.

"It was surprising that Blair has admitted that there was a cabinet split on this. Prime ministers do not like admitting this. The cabinet went with him 100 per cent on Iraq and perhaps, in hindsight, they don't want to do that again.

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