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The world is warming up more quickly than previously thought and with potentially more damaging long-term consequences, according to a new report which brings together the latest research from the world's leading scientists.
The report, Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, warns that environmental catastrophes such as the melting of the Antarctic ice sheets or the slowing of the Gulf Stream, which warms Britain, may be triggered by temperature increases well within those predicted to occur this century.
It states that there are no "magic bullet" solutions to alleviate the threat: the introduction of cleaner technology in the West will not enough be to offset the increases caused by the massive economic growth in developing countries.
In one of its most worrying conclusions, Professor Chris Rapley of the British Antarctic Survey gives warning that the West Antarctic ice sheet, which had previously been considered a "slumbering giant" in terms of climate change, is now starting to disintegrate at an alarming rate.
If it melts completely, scientists believe sea levels around the world could rise by up to 5m (16ft), swamping vast tracts of coastal land.
The report also warns that changes in the acidity of the sea will reduce its capacity to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, with severe consequences on the entire marine food chain.
The government-sponsored report collects the evidence presented by 200 scientists from 30 countries at a conference hosted by the Met Office in Exeter a year ago. Although none of the research is new, it has been extended and peer-reviewed since the conference and its combined weight paints an ominous picture.
The European Union has adopted a target of preventing a rise in global average temperature of more than 2C. But that, according to the report, might be too high, with two degrees being the tipping point for the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.
It concludes that there is strong evidence that climate change due to human activity is already occurring and that future greenhouse gas emissions are likely to raise global temperatures by between 1.4C and 5.8C during this century, with a wide range of impacts on the natural world and human society.
These include extinctions and possible ecosystem collapses, a trebling of poor harvests in Europe and Russia, the desertification of much of North Africa and major increases in water shortages.
A summary of the report says: "In many cases the risks are more serious than previously thought. A global temperature increase of up to 1C may be beneficial for a few regions and sectors, such as high latitude areas and agriculture.
"A number of critical temperature levels and rates of change relative to pre-industrial times were noted. For example, a regional increase above present levels of 2.7C may be a threshold that triggers melting of the Greenland ice-cap, while an increase in global temperatures of about 10C is likely to lead to extensive coral bleaching.
"Serious risk of large scale, irreversible system disruption, such as reversal of the land carbon sink and possible destabilisation of the Antarctic ice sheets is more likely above 30C. Such levels are well within the range of climate change."
Tony Blair, who made climate change and global poverty the twin pillars of his G8 and EU presidency last year, has endorsed the findings. In a foreward he writes: "The risks of climate change may well be greater than we thought."
The book states that technological options to avert catastrophe already exist, as do the financial mechanisms such as emissions trading which can promote their uptake.
In their article, Bert Metz and Detlef van Vuuren of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, state: "For all stabilisation strategies, the biggest problem does not seem to be the technologies or the costs, but overcoming the many political, social and behavioural barriers to implementing mitigation options.
"There is a multitude of potential obstacles, ranging from lack of awareness, vested interests, prices not reflecting environmental impacts, cultural and behavioural barriers to change and, in the case of spreading technologies to developing countries, the lack of an effective enabling environment for new investments."
Margaret Beckett, the Environment Secretary, said that current targets - such as reducing carbon emissions by 60 per cent by the middle of the century - may not be ambitious enough.
Mrs Beckett said she hoped to publish the Government’s Climate Change Strategy - initially pencilled in for last year - in the near future, and certainly by the end of 2006. She denied that the Government had already decided to invest in new nuclear power stations as a contribution towards cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
But she said that nuclear power must be considered because of the possibility it could play a part in meeting the UK’s long-term climate change targets.
"The reason we need to look at it very seriously is that the one thing you can say about nuclear power is that, once you have put in all the energy required to construct the nuclear power stations, it is actually a low-carbon form of energy," she told the BBC.
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