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It means that the prime minister will have to rely on the Tories’ support to get the reform package through the Commons.
The Tory leadership has indicated that it is sticking with Blair even though his plans to give schools greater freedom have been watered down.
David Chaytor, one of the leading rebels, said he believed between 50 and 75 MPs were still prepared to vote against the proposals. His contention was supported by a straw poll of 26 Labour rebels, of whom only one said he was satisfied with the concessions; 17 were against and eight were undecided.
The concessions to the rebels would stop schools interviewing parents or accepting letters from pupils to back up applications. They would also ensure that councils would be allowed to create new comprehensives alongside schools that chose to become independent trusts.
The key Commons vote on the compromise is unlikely to take place until mid-March and ministers have already been told to cancel overseas trips so that they can be present. Ruth Kelly, the education secretary, has retained a right to veto councils’ plans to set up their own comprehensives, but even this may have to be sacrificed if the government is to win the vote.
Chaytor, MP for Bury North, said last night that ministers had not been able to reassure many of his colleagues that trust schools would be prevented from selecting brighter or more middle-class children.
He said the concessions amounted to “symbolic pushing of the right buttons but it doesn’t tie things up in the detail we want”.
As a result of the Labour split, Kelly has delayed publication of the bill, which will not appear now until the end of this month.
The new law would allow all schools to become part of trusts run by companies or churches. This would mean they could own their buildings, set teacher pay levels and control their admissions.
Blair faces further embarrassment this week with the publication of figures that will show a fall in applications to university, largely because many 18-year-olds have been put off by the higher fees which will come in next year. o Blair’s reforms to health and education will return these services almost exactly to the position that Labour inherited from the Conservatives in 1997, a pamphlet will claim this week.
The Bow Group pamphlet, Tony, Duke of York, by Peter Lilley, the former cabinet minister, will urge Tories to support Labour’s reforms, but only because they are essentially Conservative policies.
Additional reporting: Claire Newell, Tom Baird, Holly Watt
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