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Cameron, in contrast, was the public’s new darling, with three times as many people saying they expected him to do a good job as thought he would do poorly — giving him a 34-point positive rating.
An ICM poll last month for The Guardian, traditionally the house journal for Lib Dem voters, showed that only 38% thought the Lib Dems would stand the best chance at the next election with Kennedy as leader, while 52% thought they would fare better with a change at the top. Another poll, this time from YouGov, showed that only 11% of people thought Kennedy would make the best prime minister — well below even the party’s lower poll rating — compared with 18% at the time of the election.
“Charles Kennedy achieved a lot; we have the largest number of MPs since 1923 and the electoral geography is more favourable than before,” said Chris Huhne, the party’s shadow chief secretary. “But we need to respond to new political circumstances in a more agile way and Charles was not the man to do that.”
Not all experts agree that the electoral legacy which Kennedy left his successor is so favourable.
“It was a golden opportunity in the 2005 election and Kennedy and the Lib Dems blew it,” said Professor Michael Thrasher of the University of Plymouth Elections Centre. “Blair was unpopular over Iraq and the Lib Dems should have had a vote-winner with their policy on tuition fees. These kind of opportunities don’t come round very often.”
The challenge now for the Lib Dems is to respond to the changed political landscape. Some political analysts say that Cameron’s shift back towards the centre ground will mean an inevitable squeeze on Britain’s third party.
“They have to decide whether to maintain the attack on Labour at the risk of leaving themselves vulnerable to the Tories,” said Thrasher. “Even though support for the party has slipped since the general election, it is still at historically high levels. It could quite easily slide very quickly.”
Some Lib Dem strategists believe, however, that there is a fresh opportunity: the new Tory leader’s approach, combined with Blair’s difficulties in getting his reforms past his own backbenchers, leave a gap for the party to exploit.
“We can provide a radical and appealing alternative — providing we make the right choices now,” said one MP.
The party’s so-called economic liberals, who published a collection of essays called The Orange Book in the autumn of 2004, believe that the Lib Dems are in a better position to exploit voter dissatisfaction than the Tories.
Their policy agenda, which includes the return of political powers to local level, the repatriation of some powers from Brussels and a new social insurance system to pay for healthcare, would provide a more distinctive alternative than anything offered by Cameron’s Tories, they believe.
The question is whether Kennedy’s successor will be determined enough to pursue such a bold set of policies.
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