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Tony Blair will delay his Cabinet reshuffle until after the Education Secretary has reported to MPs on Thursday on her review of cases in which people have been allowed to work with children despite having received cautions for offences.
Mr Blair has consistently voiced his confidence in Ms Kelly, whom he would hate to lose at a time when she has to pilot through his flagship Education Bill. He did so again yesterday. But he left himself leeway to remove her if further problems were to befall her.
Labour MPs are sympathetic to Ms Kelly in the continuing row over cases in which teachers have been cleared by ministers despite having appeared on the sex offenders register.
But many MPs have reported deep concerns among parents in their constituencies and are looking to Ms Kelly to do all she can to alleviate these. Most expect her to do so and the view among MPs and the whips is that she will survive.
The clear implication, however, is that if Ms Kelly were to fail on Thursday, or if further embarrassing cases emerge, she could lose her job.
Officials denied that Mr Blair had delayed the reshuffle solely because of Ms Kelly’s difficulties. He has been looking for the right moment to carry it out since the departure of David Blunkett in November. But they admitted that with so much speculation about her future in the newspapers it would be inappropriate to carry out a reshuffle in the febrile atmosphere of the moment. Mr Blair has been accused of “botching” previous reshuffles and will do this one “when he is ready”, a senior confidant said.
The delay is also seen as giving more time for Ms Kelly to find a compromise with Labour backbenchers opposed to the Government’s plans for trust schools, independent of local council control. A major rebellion or even defeat of the Education Bill, due to be published next month, could prove to be seriously damaging to Mr Blair’s authority.
The Conservatives believe that the Government’s decision to look at cases before 1997 is an attempt to spread the political blame. Some senior civil servants are said to have voiced concern over looking at previous government papers.David Willetts, the Shadow Education Secretary, said last night: “Ruth Kelly cannot even tell us now how many cases of teachers being cleared to work there have been in the last two years. To be delving back into the pre-internet past, when she cannot even provide that basic information, seems bizarre.”
Hazel Blears, the Home Office Minister of State, remains most MPs’ tip to enter the Cabinet to fill the vacancy left by Mr Blunkett.
But doubts over the future of Ian McCartney, the party chairman, have persisted, and Mr Blair is also believed to be considering how to make room in junior posts for some of the 2005 intake of MPs. Ed Balls, Pat McFadden and Ed Miliband have all been praised by the Prime Minister and would be candidates if the reshuffle goes wider than expected.
Mr Blair’s spokesman said that the Government was prepared to “take a bit of heat” while the review was completed. There was a need for a calm and methodical approach, he said. “What Ruth Kelly is doing is carrying out a thorough review of this whole issue. I think the time to talk about List 99 and the whole issue is on Thursday and that we shall do.”
Sir Mike Tomlinson, the former Chief Inspector of Schools, welcomed the reported moves to take decisions on such appeals away from ministers. But he gave warning that it was impossible to devise a system that was completely infallible and said that he was aware of cases in which known offenders had not even been reported to the police.
“Anyone who hopes that out of this will come a foolproof system is hoping for something that cannot be delivered,” he said. “In my time as an HMI (inspector) I was aware of people who committed such crimes but were . . . simply encouraged to move to another school.”
Sir Mike also questioned the advice Ms Kelly was receiving from her officials, as it now appeared that she had made statements in the House that were untrue. “I was surprised that she was able to make a statement last week saying that no one on List 99 then goes on to teach, only for this weekend a case in which she was involved to actually come to light.”
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