THE British people are to be given a say in a referendum on the new European constitution after all, Tony Blair will announce within days.

The poll will almost certainly be held in the early months of the next Parliament if Labour is re-elected, The Times understands. It would be the first national referendum since 1975 when a previous Labour government asked the people whether Britain should stay in Europe.

It could be one of the last acts of the Blair premiership if, as has been widely speculated, he decided to stand down in the early years of the next Parliament with the expectation that Gordon Brown would succeed him. The announcement will come over the next few days, probably on Wednesday.

He will not be specific about the timing, but ministers say that Mr Blair would not want to risk losing a referendum before the general election, expected on May 5 next year.

Although he believes he will win the referendum when it comes, a defeat early in the next Parliament would be far less damaging than a reverse at the end of this one.

Mr Blair’s announcement of the biggest U-turn of his premiership is unlikely to wait until after Thursday’s Cabinet meeting. He is certain to be questioned on the issue at Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday and could disclose his decision then or in a separate Commons statement afterwards.

Mr Blair, whose shift was exclusively reported in The Times last Thursday, will avoid pinning himself down on whether the poll will be before or after an election. Instead he will promise that the people will be given a vote after Parliament has ratified the new constitution, now increasingly likely to be agreed at a summit in Brussels in June.

In practice, however, the ratification Bill is unlikely to be ready to go before the Commons until October at the earliest. There will also have to be a Bill authorising a referendum and it is unlikely that there will be enough time to get them through for a poll in this Parliament.

A campaign would last for ten weeks, with the political parties and leading groups receiving millions of pounds to help them to put their opposing cases. Michael Howard, the Tory leader, demanded a referendum as soon as possible after the constitution has been agreed.

Mr Blair will have discussions with senior Cabinet colleagues early this week, but it is clear that the balance of opinion has shifted decisively in favour of a U-turn. Last October Mr Blair said: “There will not be a referendum. The reason is that the constitution does not fundamentally change the relationship between the UK and the EU.”

Mr Blair’s change of mind has been encouraged by a Cabinet alliance of pro-Europeans, such as Patricia Hewitt and John Reid, and more sceptical colleagues including Jack Straw, John Prescott and Gordon Brown.

They appear to have accepted that refusing to hold a referendum could become a serious issue in the forthcoming European elections and in the general election, and would have been used by critics as further evidence of the Government’s arrogance.

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