A new Populus poll for The Times, the first of the new year, shows that an overwhelming majority of the public believes that Tony Blair will survive the challenges to his authority this month over the Hutton report and university top-up fees.

Despite all the media speculation about Mr Blair’s troubles, less than a fifth of voters think that he will leave 10 Downing Street this year. A big majority believes that he will survive until the next election and step down in the next Parliament.

The poll, held between Friday and Sunday, shows that the Tories are continuing to advance under Mr Howard, who became Conservative leader just over two months ago. But Labour has also been making gains.

Support for the Tories has risen by two points for the second month running, up to 35 per cent. This is the party’s highest January rating since 1993. These figures suggest that the Tories may have climbed above their decade-long plateau of being stuck around 30-32 per cent.

However, Labour support has increased over the past month by four points to 40 per cent, a big relief for Mr Blair and Labour. This is the highest level since last May, just after the capture of Baghdad and before the death of David Kelly which led to the setting-up of the Hutton inquiry.

The Liberal Democrats have been badly squeezed. Support for them has fallen for the fourth month running, down by four points over the past month to 18 per cent. This is their lowest level since March 2002.

If these figures were repeated at a general election, Labour would win a third term with another sizeable Commons majority, enough to implement its programme over a whole Parliament. Only about a quarter of all voters think that Mr Howard will become Prime Minister at the next general election.

The findings indicate a possible return of the two-party system, though support for the Liberal Democrats is still only slightly down on their share at the last general election, when the party won 52 seats. Their current rating is four to five points higher than at the same point of the last Parliament.

As MPs returned to Westminster from their Christmas recess, the main talking point was the impact on Mr Blair of the Hutton report and the Commons vote on top-up fees. An exact date has not yet been fixed for the publication of the Hutton report, but it is likely to be at least two weeks away. A spokesman for the inquiry said that publication would still probably be in January.

Mr Blair met senior ministers and advisers to discuss possible concessions on variable tuition fees for universities in the face of the opposition of a large number of Labour MPs. The Bill will be published within the next week, with the key second reading vote in the Commons at the end of the month. Mr Blair, Charles Clarke, the Education Secretary, and Commons business managers will decide this morning whether to publish the Bill on Thursday or next Monday or Tuesday.

The Government faces tricky issues of timing. Ministers will not want the publication of Hutton and the tuition fees vote in the same week. Mr Blair’s advisers have wanted to get Hutton out of the way before facing the Bill. Much will depend on what Lord Hutton says about the Prime Minister’s handling of the disclosure of Dr Kelly’s name. That will affect how long the Hutton report dominates the Westminster scene, especially as a full-scale Commons debate is likely to be held a week or so after the report is published.

The Hutton report and the top-up fees vote represent serious political challenges for Mr Blair. But a big majority of voters believes that he will overcome these obstacles and the big series of elections on June 10 for the London mayoralty and assembly, for big city and urban councils and for the European Parliament.

Just 19 per cent of all voters think that Mr Blair will leave 10 Downing Street this year. This includes a mere one in eight of Labour voters, but a quarter of Lib Dems and of professionals and managers.

Two thirds (66 per cent) believe that he will leave 10 Downing Street either “straight after the next election” or “later in the next Parliament”. By contrast, nearly half (47 per cent) do not think that Mr Howard will ever become Prime Minister. This includes a fifth of Tory supporters. However, two fifths of all voters believe he will become Prime Minister either at the next election or the election after the next.

Among committed Tories, Mr Howard has already succeeded in reviving morale and hopes of electoral victory. Well over a half of Tory voters (56 per cent) think he will enter 10 Downing Street by the next election. This is the most positive and optimistic view of their party’s prospects that Tory supporters have had for well over a decade.

There is a striking gender gap. Nearly a third of women (31 per cent) think Mr Howard will become Prime Minister by the next election, but only just over a fifth of men (22 per cent). Similarly, while over a half of men (52 per cent) think that Mr Howard will never be Prime Minister, only just over two fifths of women (43 per cent) think he never will.

Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,002 adults aged 18 or over by telephone. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults.

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