TONY BLAIR has attempted to stamp on speculation about his future by telling close Cabinet friends of his intention to serve a full third term if he is re-elected next summer.

Members of his inner circle have disclosed the Prime Minister’s hopes after the most difficult period of his premiership provoked serious questions for the first time over how long he would stay on.

If his hopes are fulfilled it would mean Mr Blair serving longer than Margaret Thatcher, who he has previously suggested went on for too long. Mrs Thatcher, who declared in 1987 that she would “go on . . . and on and on”, was ousted in November 1990 after 11½ years in office. Were Mr Blair to serve a full third term he would have been in office at least 12 years.

There have been suggestions that Mr Blair might go this year, enabling Gordon Brown, the long-time favourite to succeed him, to take over before the election. Neil Kinnock, the former Labour leader, suggested at the weekend that Mr Blair might go soon after the next election, after the referendum on the European constitution.

But The Times has learnt that in recent conversations Mr Blair has told confidants that he has no intention of going soon, and that he will go into the next election fighting to serve for the full term.

Mr Blair is not expected to make a deliberate public statement of his intentions, but if asked in interviews he will make clear that he is standing for the full term, senior ministers say.

Mr Blair is expected to go into the election fighting on a manifesto which emphasises new policies on education, including proposals for children’s centres in deprived areas offering full-time care and education for under-fives.

Another measure being considered would see the introduction of education and training capital funds worth up to £35,000 for all school-leavers. This would allow people to choose whether to spend their money on a university degree or save some for further training later in life.

Disclosure of Mr Blair’s intentions to stay in Downing Street comes as it draws up a “recovery plan” designed to restore trust in the Government and his authority. It is built round the Chancellor’s Comprehensive Spending Review in the summer, the five-year plans for key departments, a limited Cabinet reshuffle and the party conference in the autumn at which radical third-term policies will be set out.

The “he goes on” message being voiced by Mr Blair’s close confidants inside and outside the Cabinet would, on the surface, appear to dampen the Chancellor’s hopes of taking over early in the next term.

But they appear more to be driven by a desire to quash a bout of speculation in newspaper columns and among politicians that he might be tempted to throw in the towel after months of incessant pressure over the Iraq war and last week’s row over his decision to climb down and promise a European referendum.

There has been renewed speculation in recent months that Mr Blair and Mr Brown have come to a fresh understanding about a handover. However, it is a fact of political life that prime ministers can never suggest that their time in office is limited without becoming lame ducks, and last night’s disclosure will not erase the belief that Mr Blair and Mr Brown may have forged an arrangement about the future.

Ministers, including Mr Brown, are likely to accept that Mr Blair has no choice but to give the impression that he will go on and on, even if privately that is not his intention. The Conservatives had been expected to use repeated claims of a deal between Mr Brown and Mr Blair to campaign on the slogan that “voting for Blair would mean getting Brown”. Mr Blair’s inner circle are giving notice that he is determined that that should not be a campaign issue.

Friends say that Mr Blair fully accepts that his difficulties over Iraq will play a part in the election. However, he is said to feel that he will be vindicated by events and that only after the election will Labour begin to escape from the internal tensions the war provoked.

The Prime Minister’s close aides acknowledge that the “two-term mandate” he won in 1997 has now expired and are determined to avoid a rerun of the 2001 election campaign which contrasted Labour’s public service investment against Tory “cuts”. Mr Blair’s aides say Labour must go further and show that it has renewed itself while in office.

Mr Blair and Mr Brown are reported to be working closely together on election planning. The Chancellor has been given effective control over the weekly “grid” of government announcements, formerly a preserve of No 10.

Both Mr Blair and the Chancellor also agree that Michael Howard is a big target who should be portrayed as a Thatcherite rightwinger still wedded to the past.

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