SHARES in President Saddam Hussein’s future performed well on the spread-betting markets yesterday as traders concluded that Hans Blix had given the Iraqi leader some breathing space.

The handful of internet betting websites offering odds about when Saddam will meet his doom saw frenzied trading from the moment Dr Blix began speaking.

Saddam’s chances of removal fell from a high of 45 per cent to 39 per cent. Even after Jack Straw made his hawkish comments, followed by Colin Powell’s unyielding tour de force, the market bounced back only to 42. Tradesports.com of Dublin saw 2,000 contracts made in a few hours about Saddam’s chances of surviving to the end of next month as President of Iraq.

The market frenzy is driven by traders from both sides of the Atlantic and Australia. A “Mexican stand-off” has emerged, with European traders gambling on Saddam’s survival while Americans patriotically put money on his demise.

Financial Spreads of London saw an instant reaction to Dr Blix’s speech, with punters also believing that Saddam had won more time.

Minutes after the weapons inspector finishing speaking, betting on the date when the price of gold will exceed $400 per troy ounce (likely in wartime) went from 95-100 days to 195 days.

This is not just a game. An American academic has studied the “Saddam futures” and found that they have a statistically significant link with the price of oil futures.

Some spread-betting organisations regard the bets as tasteless, but they were still monitoring Dr Blix’s every word for clues about the prospects of war.

The oil price, the FTSE index, the result of the next general election and President Bush’s prospects are all favourite spread bets. Dr Blix held their destinies in his hands.

“Saddam shares” are so popular that “Osama futures” have just been launched. Traders are pessimistic that the al-Qaeda chief will be “captured/neutralised” (as Tradesports.com tactfully puts it) by June 30, with only 10 per cent support for this prediction.

The bravest punters can gamble on whether a second UN resolution will back force against Iraq by the end of March. But after yesterday’s diplomatic showdown in New York, the chances of a UN-supported war tumbled from 22 to 15 per cent.

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