David Canter
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Five months after her disappearance, we are no further towards knowing exactly what happened to Madeleine McCann and we may never know the truth. However, after spending many days in Praia da Luz while making a Dispatches documentary about the case, I have come to the conclusion that the greatest likelihood is that she was abducted, and probably by a local person.
There are a number of indicators that have led me to this conclusion.
The days that I spent in Praia da Luz speaking to those who were there soon after that dreadful night in May, and with experienced police officers and a forensic scientist, have helped to clear away many of the myths and half-truths that have driven the accounts of Madeleine’s disappearance.
If you stand outside the apparently unremarkable apartment from which Madeleine vanished, the reality of unexpected horror hits home. The tidy walls and hedges that divide the apartments from the swimming pool, on the far side of which the family were eating tapas on May 3, take on a much more sinister form when you realise that they hide any clear view of the room in which the McCann children were sleeping.
An abductor who knew the complex would have had to be quick to remove the child from her apartment without being seen, but he could have done it. After passing through the alleyway that ran beside the apartment, he would then have found it simple to dash across the deserted road behind the resort and through a small car park to a network of alleyways sheltered by high walls.
These alleyways, decorated with lush bougainvillea, provide an ideal rat-run that would be well known to local criminals. Late in the evening it would have been a simple thing to pass through these alleyways to a safe house or a car parked near by.
Possible escape routes aside, one of the most convincing arguments I have heard for an abduction by a local came from my colleague at Liverpool University, Professor Kevin Browne, who advises many international agencies including the WHO and Unicef on child protection. He made clear that this quiet village could harbour a number of child abusers who had been released into the community rather than convicted.
The situation in Portugal was, he pointed out, very different from that in Britain today, being more the way it used to be here a decade or more ago.
Compared with other countries in Western Europe, Portugal convicts a much smaller proportion of child abusers. Children are more likely to be removed from their families, ending up in institutions while their abusers walk free. As a consequence, there are not only potentially more abusers within society unmarked and unmonitored, but a of whole new generation of people with an increased likelihood of becoming abusers because of their own experiences.
There are limited possibilities for what happened to Madeleine. I think of these along a continuum from those, at one end, in which she played a significant role, to the other extreme at which would lie an organised network of traffickers who come to Praia de Luz specifically to find a victim.
The family or close associates distance us from the possibilites involving the girl herself. Those who know the family but are not really known to the family themselves, such as service staff, lead us a step closer to the possibilities of a distant criminal network.
However, there is a crucial prospect of a person who had no direct contact with the family, observing them from afar, although not part of any criminal organisation.
Each possible explanation for the disappearance is driven by different assumptions.
If she had woken up in distress would she have sat and cried or wandered off into the town? If she had wandered off it would have been to try to find her parents – along a probably familiar route to where they were eating. It would have been a terrible coincidence if she had been abducted on such an unlikely journey.
The prospect of family or friends’ involvement beggars belief. For a start, if the child had been killed in some accident, possibly as a result of an overdose, then her medically trained parents would have had to be exceptionally incompetent, for which there is no evidence. Furthermore, the friends who were with them would all have had to be willing to risk their professional careers to keep such a appalling secret for such a long time.
Organised networks of people traffickers, sadly, have much more obvious opportunities for finding vulnerable children who would not be missed on the streets of many developing countries, or even in the orphanages, and sometimes the streets of Eastern Europe. Why risk being caught in a quite middle-class holiday resort?
Against this backdrop, it became clear to me that the police in the Al-garve simply do not have the resources to deal with crimes of this magnitude. Their expertise lies in dealing with the drug smuggling that occurs frequently between North Africa and here. But resources that the English police can bring to bear quickly are unlikely to be available to the Portuguese police in any serious inquiry.
Detective Chief Superintendent Chris Stevenson, who headed the Soham investigation into the murders of Holly Wells and Jessica Chapman in 2002, made clear in his contribution to the documentary that the British police would have followed the detailed procedure laid down in an inch-thick “murder manual” – a painstakingly systematic approach that can send the cost of the average murder inquiry to £1 million.
Without these resources, the Portuguese police have had to proceed very differently. They have to find ways of taking the short cuts that detectives in fact and fiction have always had to take in the past. This consists of forming a view of what the likely cause of the crime is and using that in the search for clues.
For me the most obvious possibility is the local offender quickly escaping down the rat-run of dark alleys. One witness is reported as seeing a man rushing away from the complex with a child wrapped in a blanket shortly after the last reported sighting of Madeleine.
The days spent discussing the disappearance of Madeleine in the actual location where the McCanns had been on holiday provided a rather different perspective from the one heralded in the British media. The little girl may just have been in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Searching for Madeleine: A Dispatches special on Channel 4 tonight at 9pm
David Canter is a criminal psychologist
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We can not possibly know whay every child abductor looks like. He/she could look perfectly ordinary.
D McC Cumbria England
Dorothy McCormack, Carlisle, Cumbria,England
It's also time to discard the myth that survivors of child abuse are more likely to become abusers themselves-
"whole new generation of people with an increased likelihood of becoming abusers because of their own experiences"
Being sexually abused as a child does not make you more likely to become a child abuser. In fact it's the opposite. The majority of children who are abused are little girls and you don't see many female pedophiles in court.
Anon, London,
The quiet little village that could harbour a number of child abusers has about one thousand residents of which half are British and an unknown number has British and Portuguese dual nationality. In such a small community where everybody knows everybody , and which doubles the population on the summer season with a great majority of British tourists , it is unlikely that a child abuser would go unnoticed.
Maria, Lisboa,
I read a few weeks ago that apparently MI5 as the world leader in satellite imaging would very likely have access to images of the abduction, but the British PM would need to give the go-ahead. Does anyone know if this has been given? It ought to be.
Ilmarinen, Jyvaskyla , Finland
At last!!!! The McCanns or the British Government or whoever it was, have brought in a powerful group - Metoda 3 - who will probably be the only people who have a chance of ever finding Madeleine. If it is true that they have a 100% success rate in finding abducted people, for God's sake lets just let them get on with it. I hope against all hope that Madeleine will be found alive, and to suggest her parents had anything to do with her disapearance is ludicrous!! Gerry and Kate would need to shout their guilt from the roof tops before I would believe they could harm their child! If Madeleine is found alive, I pray that if she has suffered in any way, that her extreme youth and the love of her parents and family will pull her through it, so that she can get on with living a normal life.
Lyn, Cardiff, UK
I am glad that the Portuguese police are interviewing everyone again!
I feel that the abductor was either staying at or working at the hotel. The abductor was enamored with beautiful Maddie early on and was stalking the family. Only someone around frequently would be able to watch her. He became aware that she was usually alone during dinner time and took his opportunity.
It is sad that the family felt that this small town was safe.
To accuse the parents of murdering and hiding her is less likely.
They went there with friends and their children to have a good time and it should be noted that they would rather take their
children with them than leave them at home. This is a loving family and if, as has been suggested, they killed her by mistake, then I cannot see them reacting coolly and disposing of her. No they would have been devastated, it would have shown up during the dinner and they are the type who would want a proper funeral for her.
Susan Skorayko, Richmond Hill, Canada
So far, I have not heard any reports of the police investigating
1. Who else rented the apartment before the McCanns to establish where the blood on the walls might have come from and
2. Who else rented the car before they did. This may explain the bodily fluids that cannot, because of time elapsed, be directly linked to Madeleine.
Jenny Hayes, Newcastle Upon-Tyne,
It's absolutely absurd to suggest that, in this climate, the body was hidden for twenty days. If in an extreme case it was, it must have been kept in a freezer. How were the parents to find a freezer at such short notice in an unfamiliar environment etc, etc.........................and if they did why aren't the Portuguee police looking for the place where the corpse was kept for such a long period. Surely that will give absolutely enormous amounts of DNA to prove their case. Noone but nobody has ever mentioned where the body was kept during these so.called twenty days. In a Mediterranean climate bodies are interned the same day they die or the day after.
Alan Groom, Biniali, Mallorca, Baleares
Yes B Jacobs, there are plenty, the most famous of which is Ben Needham.
There are also 2 recent cases in the UK of paedophiles abducting children from under the nose of their parents - one in the NE where a girl was pulled from the bath when her mother was in the next room, and one in Wales where a 3 year old was pinched from her house when her mother & siblings were at home.
In the latter case it was only because the abductors jumped a red light that the girl was found by police. If not - her story might well have mirrored Madeleine's.
The Dutroux cases in Belgium & the Natascha Kampusch case show that girls can be kidnapped in the blink of an eye with no witnesses.
Manon, London,
If Madeleine was kidnapped, it seems she must have been lying dead in the apartment, in different locations, for more than an hour and a half. This would have been possible if the parents went out at 8pm and returned after 10pm.
Rosemary, London,
I know that I am not the only one who feels that nothing about this case makes any sense .. and I could list many contradictions. Not even the theory of an opportunist local abduction makes sense. However, looking at the big picture I cannot help wondering if the whole situation was not set-up and the McCann's carefully selected and the media, public and local police (PJ and UK) manipulated to distract from another issue which is slowly but stealthily sneeking under our radars, or to put pressure on others in influential positions. To what extent the parties involved know of the deception and to what extent (if any) it will become known by us mere public ... even if she is found alive ...?? There are many others newsworthy items receiving less coverage than they deserve.
Lorraine, Derby, UK
Louise, what forensic EVIDENCE is this?
I have followed this case, & I am convinced these parents are innocent of killing there child & as so it must be so terrible for them to be tried by rumour.
This couple are upper middle class & they don't come over as well as "Salt of the earth" working class people do, & I believe their is a great deal of inverted snobbery directed towards them & their acts.
But does that make them guilty, of course not.
Alice, New Forest, Hampshire
The existence of a maze of alleyways proves nothing, unless one has evidence for prior suspicious activity in those alleyways.
It's all very well saying that Portugal is crawling with released child abusers, but if that were the case, why has there not been a prior spate of child abductions ?
Jeremy Tyler, Arcachon, France
Re the "forensic evidence"....rememeb that the FSS itself has described it as "inconclusive" - and complained to the PJ about their misuse of the evidence.
And the sniffer dogs - the evidence of which is thrown out by US Courts, due to their identifying "false positives" between 66 and 75% of the time?
What this programme confirms is that the PJ botched th job from day 1 - and have subsequently been clutching at straws to find anything they can to justify a baseless assumption that it must have been the parents.
Recall, this is such a high quality police force that the two leads of the inquiry are both under charges equivalent to "interfering with the course of justice" and seem to have been in the habit of beating confessions out of suspects.
andy, Berks, UK
The theory of an organised network assumes that the profit from abducting a single child more than pays for the cost of setting up a network in this town. This seems unlikely at best, particularly given the potential for subsequent blackmail. If there had been a cluster of abductions locally, it would surely have been reported by now.
The theory of an opportunist local abduction requires the abductor to know from behind a road, a hedge (described here) and closed shutters (I believe mentioned on TV reports) that a child was unattended in the room, and on what schedule its parents were visiting it. This is of course possible, but the number of such people probably could be counted on the fingers of one hand.
Ian Kemmish, Biggleswade, UK
Not to mention the forensic evidence gathered and evidence from the British sniffer dogs, how on earth would an abductor have known that the apartment was unlocked? Her parents have continually discounted the theory that she wandered off.
Arlene Mullen, Chester, UK
Why is there no mention of the forensic evidence and the evidence from the highly-trained (British) sniffer dogs that have been used on high-profile cases throughout the world? Does Mr. Canter have reason to discount all of the evidence on which the police have based their official suspicion of the McCanns?
Louise, New York, NY
Has there ever been a similar 'abduction' case of a tourist's child taken in this way, in the world before?
Just asking the 'criminal psychologist' for some previous evidence, please?
Or is this a 'first' with no empirical or statistical prior evidence?
B Jacobs, Leicester, UK