Sir Ian Blair faces some key battles in the days ahead if he is to survive as Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police. Only the Home Secretary can force him to go, but pressure from the following quarters will weaken his position, perhaps fatally.

The politicians

A “royal flush” lined up to protect Sir Ian after the verdict. The Prime Minister, Home Secretary, Mayor of London and chairman of the Metropolitan Police Authority all said that he retained their full confidence.

However, opposition politicians said that his position was untenable. David Davis, the Shadow Home Secretary, said that the trial had shed light on “serial failures”, adding: “They include failures of organisation, command and operations. The failures were systemic, falling within the clear responsibility of the Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police.”

Factfile: revelations from the de Menezes trial

Information about the police killing of Jean Charles de Menezes, on July 22, 2005, that has emerged during the trial

Multimedia

• Pictures: Jean Charles de Menezes

BACKGROUND

• Ian Blair survives no confidence vote

• Timeline: how de Menezes identity emerged

• Come quietly, Sir Ian – you’re banged to rights

• ‘It is my task to ensure that lessons are learnt’

Related Internet Links

• Download full report

Related Links

• Will Sir Ian take the blame?

• Family furious at defence 'smear campaign'

• De Menezes police refuse to recognise mistakes

Multimedia

• Pictures: the de Menezes case

His Liberal Democrat counterpart, Nick Clegg, also said that the guilty verdict made Sir Ian’s resignation “unavoidable”. He added: “The simple priority today is to show that we have a police force in London which is prepared to accept full responsibility for its actions.”

The Independent Police Complaints Commission

Ominously for the commissioner, the IPCC said that it was ready to publish its report into the Stockwell shooting within days, barring intervention from Metropolitan Police solicitors.

The report - which formed the basis of the health and safety prosecution - is expected to reveal individual and organisational failures. The IPCC chairman, Nick Hardwick, said yesterday that there would be no winners. “The outcome will not assuage the grief and anger of the Menezes family. The case has damaged the reputation of the Metropolitan Police, and I know it has caused anguish for the officers involved and their families.

“However, the Met’s mission is to make London safer. On this one occasion, they failed.”

Despite support - so far - from key politicians, a highly critical report would ratchet up the pressure and leave the commissioner exposed.

The Metropolitan Police Authority

Within minutes of the verdict Len Duvall, the MPA’s Labour chairman, said that the authority retained full confidence in Sir Ian. However, Conservative and Lib Dem members said that his tenure should be over.

Richard Barnes, the deputy leader of the Conservatives in the Greater London Assembly and an MPA member, said that he had used standing orders to ensure that an emergency meeting on the commissioner’s future would be held within a week. He made clear that if Sir Ian did not resign he would call for a vote of no confidence, adding: “This was an operation that was corporately badly handled. His position is untenable.”

The Lib Dems said that their preferred position would be for Sir Ian to resign voluntarily. One MPA insider said: “Everybody is in agreement that Ian Blair should go but it’s the process by which he will go quickest – that’s the issue.”

Labour’s majority should protect Sir Ian in the event of a vote, but losing the support of a large chunk of the MPA would weaken his grip on power.

Ultimately, however, it is only Jacqui Smith, the Home Secretary, who can force Sir Ian, a Crown appointment, to relinquish his grip.

Potential successors

Paul Stephenson Sir Ian’s No 2 as Met deputy commissioner, a post that he took up in 2005 after three years as Chief Constable of Lancashire. He has also served on Merseyside and with the Royal Ulster Constabulary. In August last year it fell to him to present the public arguments for closing British airports after the discovery of an alleged terrorist plot to blow up transatlantic airliners

Sir Hugh Orde served more than 20 years in the Met, rising to commander, before becoming Chief Constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland. He has been credited with transforming it into a force able to respond to the Province’s postconflict crime environment. His reputation has been damaged recently by scandal about his private life

Sir Norman Bettison Chief Constable of West Yorkshire and a highly regarded officer who has also commanded the Merseyside force. He was chief executive of Centrex, which provides training and development support to forces across the country

John Yates As deputy assistant commissioner at the Met, he has had to deal with the case of Paul Burrell, former butler to the Princess of Wales, and the politically explosive loans-for-peerages inquiry. Neither ended successfully for the police but Mr Yates was seen to have been beaten by the Queen in one and stymied by No 10 in the other

Sir Ronnie Flanagan Former Chief Constable of the RUC, now Chief Inspector of Constabulary. He has been spoken of as a possible stopgap should Sir Ian be forced to stand down

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