On today's figures, crime as measured by the British Crime Survey has been falling since 1995, the longest recorded period of falling crime in living memory.

Violent crime has fallen in the past year but it is unlikely the public will be convinced by the figures, given the spate of knife crimes and increase in firearms offences.

Even though these crimes are comparatively rare and are concentrated in a few urban areas of England and Wales, they cause most alarm among the public.

As a result despite the figures showing overall crime is falling, people still think it is going up nationally. However, there is some evidence that the public are starting to believe that crime in their local area is falling.

For the Government this offers a glimmer of hope that in the longer term people can be persuaded crime if falling. If what is happening at a local level can be separated from the national headlines of serious violence, ministers might just see the public starting to believe what the figures tell them.

There has to be some scepticism, however, since the British Crime Survey does not capture the full extent of crime, as it does not cover under 16s or offending involving businesses.

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