The first signs that the economic downturn is beginning to drive up crime emerge in today’s figures.

Although the headlines will highlight the jump in robberies involving a knife or sharp instrument, it is lesser increases in property crime that will set alarm bells ringing in the Home Office.

The rise in house breakins and commercial burglaries, fraud and forgeries and a much smaller fall than in previous quarters of other theft offences suggest that overall crime could soon start to head upwards dramatically - with highly damaging consequences for a Government heading towards a general election.

No wonder Jacqui Smith has announced that she is to hold a burglary summit with police and other agencies within the next two weeks.

There remains some good news for the Government and police in today’s figures with crime either still falling or at best stable. Criminal damage, sexual offences and robbery are all down.

Gun crime has also fallen, remains rare in England and Wales and is concentrated in particular geographical areas. London, the West Midlands and Greater Manchester accounted for fifty six per cent of all firearms offences, excluding air weapons, last year.

Overall violent crime was also down but the continuing problems over the counting of serious violent crimes has led to Office for National Statistics to insist that the figures cannot be released until they are sure about the quality of the data.

The attempts of the ONS to ensure that the crime figures are as robust as possible are welcome but it will take much longer to convince the public that the statistics are providing a reliable and accurate picture of overall crime in England and Wales.

Changes to counting rules and mistakes in the way figures have been collated have done untold damage pulic confidence in crime figures.

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