Within six years most sixthformers could be leaving state schools, not with GCSEs and A-levels, but with a new qualification, a continental-style school diploma, in the biggest exams shake-up for a generation.

Last week the schools secretary, Ed Balls, announced a government U-turn that some believe could signal the death of A-levels as free-standing qualifications and their replacement by the new diplomas, even for the brightest pupils. Flanked by Sir Mike Tomlinson, who drew up the original diploma proposals – only to see them largely vetoed in 2004 by the then prime minister, Tony Blair – Balls said, “I believe that the diplomas could emerge as the jewel of our education system.” He added, “They could become the qualification of choice for young people.”

Teenagers will be free to choose either GCSEs and A-levels or the new diplomas up until 2013, when a review of the entire exam system has been promised by the government. Until last week many viewed the diplomas, in subjects such as hair and beauty and construction, as a job-related, practical route for less-able children and an attempt to persuade disaffected 16-year-olds to stay on at school. But on Tuesday Balls announced three new diplomas – clearly aimed at highflying academic pupils – in sciences, languages and humanities. These will be on stream by 2011.

Last week Tomlinson told The Sunday Times that top universities are already indicating that, after some tweaking, the engineering diploma, one of the first to come on stream next autumn, will be a “better” preparation for an engineering degree than maths and science A-levels.

Tomlinson also revealed that he was asked again by the government to work on developing the diplomas after Gordon Brown became prime minister. “There is a different mood” in government, he said. After 2013 it was possible that the A-level qualification would no longer exist. “I do not know how schools and parents will respond but if the majority of pupils are doing the diploma because it is better . . . the exam boards may decide not to offer A-levels” if there are not enough pupils taking them to make it worthwhile financially.

The former chief inspector of schools said he did not know why the government’s U-turn had occurred. “You’d have to ask Ed Balls that,” he observed. “My own take on it is that there has been increasing pressure from various groups arguing that what is happening was not as good as it should be. Firstly, there is an increasing divide being created between voca-tional and academic courses in schools. Secondly, A-levels and GCSEs are no longer delivering young people with the skills and knowledge needed by universities or employers.”

Tomlinson added that there was a lot of criticism of A-level standards. A quarter of all A-level grades last summer were As, making it difficult for top universities to identify the brightest children. In maths and sciences some universities are having to provide remedial classes for 18-year-olds. The newest diplomas announced, he emphasised, would include the content of A-level syllabuses, but with extra “more rigorous” material developed partly by professors. It would be easier for universities to select the most-able children using the diploma system, which might include a points score, similar to that used by the International Baccalaureate (IB).

“Instead of having three or four A-levels you would have a diploma . . .high-flyers could have a high overall point score,” he said.

The task now will be to persuade parents, pupils, universities and schools to take a chance and opt for the new qualifications rather than for GCSE and A-level courses. So far the diplomas are being offered to only 40,000 pupils in 900 schools out of a secondary school population of 600,000. They will embark on one of the first five in construction, media, IT, health and engineering, from next September. In all, 17 diplomas will be offered, at three levels: foundation, intermediate (equivalent to six GCSEs) and advanced (equivalent to three A-levels).

However, unless take-up rises massively, the diplomas will not emerge as a serious rival to the A-level in the free-for-all ministers have now sanctioned. Indeed, earlier this year Alan Johnson, Balls’s predecessor as education secretary, warned the diplomas “could go horribly wrong”, becoming a second-class qualification. There was a “huge challenge” in making sure people understood what they were, Johnson said.

“Government now has an important job in terms of communication,” agreed Tomlinson. “Parents want to be reassured that the course their son or daughter is following will not lead them to a dead end. But if my son were now saying he wanted to do the engineering diploma next autumn I would say “fine” because I know that most universities, including Cambridge, are saying they will accept that diploma as an entry qualification to their engineering degree.”

He added that ministers should hold off making new policy initiatives so that teachers could have time to get to grips with the new diplomas and also called for better careers guidance in schools.

Graham Able, the master of Dul-wich college, was one top headmaster who warned last week that if A-levels were scrapped in 2013 fee-paying schools would not offer the government diplomas but opt for different and separate qualifications, such as the new Cambridge PreU currently under development. “If A-levels disappeared in favour of the proposed diploma at some future stage, it is likely that we would switch entirely to the Cambridge PreU,” he said.

Tomlinson himself, a governor at Merchant Taylors’ school in Middle-sex, revealed that the school is investigating introducing the IB. He admitted that there was the possibility of confusion by 2013 “if they do not get these diplomas right and they do not get them accepted by universities”.

But he added that they could indeed become the most popular qualification for most teenagers “if all the problems are ironed out. After all they are the qualification of choice for most of the Continent”.

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