As many as 100,000 children are expected to miss out on their first choice of secondary school this year, according to analysis of official figures.

As more than 560,000 families in England await the results of admissions day on March 4, when parents find out if they have a place at their favoured state secondary school, the figures suggest that nearly one in five is likely to be disappointed. This could rise to about half of children in parts of London and to four in ten in large cities or areas with grammar schools.

The figures, obtained by the Conservatives under the Freedom of Information Act, are based on offers of secondary school places last year and suggest that large numbers of parents were unable to exercise any real choice over their child’s school owing to a shortage of places in good schools.

With increasing awareness of school performance – reinforced by government rhetoric on school choice – and the opening of a number of oversubscribed academy schools, some observers expect competition to be even more intense this year.

Michael Gove, the Shadow Children’s Secretary, said: “These figures show that for large numbers of parents the idea that they can choose a school for their children is a myth. At the moment there aren’t enough good school places to go round. The most acute problems are in inner city areas, which means that it is the poorest children who miss out.”

Last year competition for places was most intense in the London boroughs of Southwark and Wandsworth, where 49 and 48 per cent of parents respectively missed out on their first choice of school, the figures show. In Buckinghamshire and Kent, which retain grammar schools, 44 and 26 per cent of parents were disappointed. The national average is 18 per cent.

The analysis comes after reports that anxiety about access to the best state secondary schools is filtering down to primary level. According to the National Confederation of Parent Teacher Associations, competition for the best primary schools has risen in the past two to three years, with up to ten children competing for every place at the most popular schools.

Interest in secondary school allocations is expected to be intense because of the introduction of a tough admissions code that bans backdoor selection and the use of a lottery system to assign places.

Jim Knight, the Schools Minister, defended the secondary admissions system last night, insisting that there were now many more good schools to choose from. There are only 17 schools where fewer than a quarter of pupils gain five good GCSEs compared with 616 schools in 1997. Mr Knight said: “It’s absurd to argue children will get a second-class education if they do not get into their preferred school. There will always be popular, oversubscribed schools with more applications than places. Instead of leaving poor-performing schools to continue failing their pupils, we want to turn every school into a good school.”

Mr Gove said that a Conservative government would give every parent the legal power to take their child out of a school they think is failing and apply to an academy school.

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