These are paradoxical times for independent schools. They have experienced a decade of UK government by a party that is nominally hostile to private education. Fees have risen relentlessly. Spending on state education has gone through the roof and the number of school-aged children has been in steady decline.

Anyone who was scenario-planning a decade ago on the basis of this backdrop would be hard pressed to envisage anything but a troubled future.

And yet, the independent sector appears to be brimful with enthusiasm. Many schools are oversubscribed, there are building programmes seemingly at every school that you care to ask and, across the sector, they are posting their best results ever.

This week the Scottish Council of Independent Schools (SCIS) will finalise the latest data on both fees and enrolment. Early indications are that they will show two things. The number of pupils attending independents in Scotland has fallen by 1% in a year — compared to an 8% drop in school-aged children across Scotland in the last decade — and that fees, pretty much across the board, are up by 4-6%.

Sarah Randell, SCIS’s deputy director, is understandably bullish. “We were expecting a drop in numbers this year because of the falling roll, but to have dropped by just 1% overall shows that the sector is still attracting a greater number of young people year-on-year.”

Indeed, given the cost of sending a child to an independent school — the average fees for a day pupil are £8,400 a year, and for boarding £23,200 a year — and the difficult economic circumstances in which we find ourselves, this is an extraordinary achievement.

Randell points to the standard of education that is available, the wide range of subjects on offer and the wraparound care that is a feature of more and more schools. Even so, it is hard not to conclude that there is a sector of Scottish society that appears willing to make the financial commitment to independent education for their children, whatever the economic backdrop.

For those who fear that this might be a struggle, Randell suggests that planning early is the key.

“We encourage parents to see an independent financial adviser who charges for their time — that way you can be sure they are not recommending financial products simply because of the commission they will receive.” She also suggests approaching school bursars early.

This is particularly useful as the money that was once devoted to scholarships has increasingly been diverted to means-tested bursaries. Scholarships for music, sport and so on still exist, but are increasingly just given as an honour, rather than with any benefits of reduced fees.

One of the sector’s strengths has been its ability to innovate. The steady transformation of hitherto single sex schools to co-education was perhaps, inevitable. Despite this, the relatively few remaining all-male or all-female establishments are vociferous in their belief that the education they provide is uniquely beneficial. Flexi-boarding, whereby children and parents can choose how many nights they stay over at school, however, has proven a boon to many time-strapped parents.

Independent schools have also been quick to take up new academic challenges, such as the International Baccalaureate (IB). St Leonards in St Andrews (465 boys and girls aged 5–18), for example, took a decision several years ago that its sixth form should concentrate entirely on the IB.

The policy was vindicated this summer when it posted the first set of results — its pupils exceeded the worldwide average score in the exam, with one pupil, Ella Johnston, achieving the maximum score possible in the exam.

“The IB is protected from ‘grade inflation’ and ensures that students efforts are appropriately rewarded and recognised. It has really opened doors around the world for our students”, enthuses headmaster Dr Michael Carslaw.

There are still potential clouds on the horizon, nonetheless. With the creation of the Office of the Scottish Charity Regulator (OSCR) in 2003, the charitable status of independent schools was placed under the spotlight. Schools will only be allowed to keep this if they can demonstrate they are providing a public benefit. The first to be subjected to a review — the High School of Dundee — was allowed to retain its charitable status.

Similar reviews are now being conducted of 11 more, including Hutchesons’, George Heriot’s, Merchiston Castle, Gordonstoun and St Leonards.

“We have identified several types of charities that may present risk or uncertainty in the context of the charity test,” explained Marieke Dwarshuis, OSCR’s head of charities. “The review of charitable status will enable us to determine whether they meet the charity test and can remain on the Scottish Charity Register”.

The schools argue retaining charitable status is as much about public perception as the financial benefits — which are marginal. Nevertheless, were a school to lose its status, it would send shockwaves through the sector. The reports are expected in October. Whatever the outcome, it seems unlikely to really dent the sector’s apparent rude health. As things stand, it is only the overall economic situation that could do that — and second guessing that with any degree of confidence requires rather more that a Higher in economics.

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