A league table of areas likely to face the greatest health threats puts three London boroughs right at the top.

Tower Hamlets, Southwark and City and Hackney primary care trusts score higher than anywhere else in behaviours – such as smoking and obesity – that are likely to adversely affect people’s health in the future.

The worst places in the country for health are currently old industrial and mining centres, such as Easington, Co Durham, and Merthyr Tydfil and Rhondda. But in a few decades’ time the picture looks very different.

Tomorrow’s health victims are likely to be those of the poor who smoke and eat too much fast food, predicts a team from CACI, a market intelligence company, and TNS, which gathers healthcare data.

Using publicly available data and their own sources, they identified PCTs with the highest proportion of people with a risky health profile.

In addition to smoking and obesity, this included areas where people ate a poor diet, low in fruit and vegetables and high in fast food and sugary drinks. A high proportion of those affected are young and have more than the average number of children. They are more likely to be single parents.

To produce their table, CACI and TNS examined the number of people in authorities falling into this group.

The analysis found that some GP surgeries serve a population where 100 per cent of people fall into the group. The average across Britain is 12.2 per cent.

“For those authorities looking to plan ahead and agree how to allocate precious resource, the findings may prove vital,” said David White, Director of Healthcare at TNS. “They allow authorities to act now to counter looming problems in their areas, even if people may seem generally healthy and are not currently presenting themselves at GPs’ surgeries or hospitals.”

Ian Thurman, head of location planning at CACI, said that several of the areas with the worst current health problems, such as Rhondda, Neath Port Talbot, and Merthyr Tydfil, appeared among the healthiest areas in the future, along with wealthy places such as South Gloucestershire, which came top, and Richmond and Twicken-ham, which was second.

The areas that currently have high health problems have a better health profile in the future, he said, because the present generation is dying off, and younger people have left to find work elsewhere. But the evidence of the tables suggests that the NHS is not targeting the right areas.

Mr Thurman cited the case of Camden Primary Care Trust. Looking forward the PCT is in the area with the 11th-most unhealthiest future but it is not among the 88 PCTs getting the most resources.

The reason is that Camden is home to both rich and poor people, so that the average income “looks quite good”, he said. “But this conceals big pockets of poverty that will cause health problems in future.

“Our rankings show five PCTs in the worst 50 – Camden, Darlington, Derby City, Peterborough, and Telford and Wrekin, which do not fall into the 88 targeted for health improvement. They could all make a case for more resources to tackle looming health problems. There is a case for reevaluating the focus of health improvement initiatives to ensure funds are allocated appropriately.”

However, he said a further analysis did not find that the PCT areas with the worst health prospects were also the most disadvantaged for sports facilities.“City and Hackney Teaching PCT, third in the problem list, has 39 gyms or health clubs in its area, one of the largest numbers in the country,” Mr Thurman said. “Rhondda Cynon Taff Local Health Board has just one, yet is in the top ten for areas least likely to experience future health problems.”

— Up to 70,000 premature deaths could be prevented each year simply by improving people’s diet, according to research published by the Strategy Unit in the Cabinet Office It said the average adult ate too much salt, saturated fat and added sugar and did not eat enough fruit, vegetables, whole-grains or oily fish.

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