ONE in ten Britons can expect to suffer from diabetes by 2010 as the full impact of the country’s soaring levels of obesity takes its toll on public health.

Doctors’ leaders gave warning yesterday that a diabetes epidemic was now inevitable as new figures revealed that the number of cases has gone up by more than one third in the past eight years.

The report, the first indicator of the repercussions of Britain’s obesity problem, shows that there are 1.8 million diabetics in Britain — up 400,000 cases since 1996. A further million people are estimated to be living with diabetes, but with the condition as yet undiagnosed.

While the Government has predicted a rise of up to three million cases by 2010, doctors said last night that it would be closer to double that level on current rates.

They said that the sheer number of people who would be affected by serious diabetes-related health complications risked crippling the NHS and severely damaging the economy in coming decades.

The latest data, published by Diabetes UK, shows that while the insulin-dependent version of the condition — known as type 1 — was rising slightly, the largest increase was in type 2 cases, which is directly linked to obesity.

Sufferers of type 2 used to be almost entirely overweight people of an older age, but today’s report shows that the condition is now being diagnosed in much younger obese people.

David Haslam, the chairman of the National Obesity Forum and a GP based in Hertfordshire, said that the rise in diabetics confirmed a “very scary trend”, with young people relying heavily on the NHS for the rest of their lives.

“The obesity timebomb is already happening. We have passed that point now. What we are seeing are the repercussions — this is the diabetes timebomb following on. Even if efforts to control the prevalence of obesity are successful beyond our wildest dreams, we are still going to have a diabetes epidemic. We have predicted and feared this, but now we can really see the proof that it is happening,” he said.

“This is going to cripple the health service, it’s going to cripple millions of individuals, the NHS and the economy.”

Obesity is now five times the level of twenty-five years ago, with three quarters of adults now overweight or obese. England has the fastest-increasing weight problem in Europe, with childhood obesity tripling in just 20 years. On present trends, half of all children in England in 2020 will be obese.

Five per cent of the NHS budget — around £10 million a day — is currently spent on treating diabetes and its effects, with sufferers spending 1.1 million days in hospital every year.

NHS spending on the condition is predicted to rise to 10 per cent by 2011. In May, a report on the obesity epidemic by the Health Select Committee gave warning that a generation of children would die before their parents if the problem were not addressed. The report cautioned about a doomsday scenario where thousands lose limbs and sight from fat-related illnesses, including diabetes.

Diabetes, which is more prevalent in ageing populations, is a condition where the body cannot convert glucose in its blood into energy because the hormone insulin is not produced. Douglas Smallwood, the chief executive of Diabetes UK, said that emphasis now needed to be placed on detection of the condition to limit related problems such as heart attacks, blindness, limb amputations and kidney failure. He said that the challenge was to ensure that all people with diabetes had an early diagnosis.

‘People don’t realise this disease can be deadly’

BERT TAYLOR, a racing car owner, became aware that he was suffering from type 2 diabetes only while in his thirties, when he temporarily lost his vision while spectating at a racetrack.

Mr Taylor, from Essex, was seen by a trackside doctor in Daytona, Florida, and told that, as an overweight man who was consuming large quantities of sugary drinks, it was likely that he was diabetic.

“It was just terrifying,” Mr Taylor, now 41, said. “I thought that was the end of my sight. It frightened the life out of me.

“I was rushed to the doctor, who took blood tests, and it didn’t take him long to tell me he thought I was diabetic.

I was told to get on the first flight home and immediately see my GP.”

Obesity was identified as the primary cause — Mr Taylor weighed close to 23st (146kg). He has since lost 6st, but suffers diabetes-related complications. Thirst, tiredness, blurred vision and frequent urination are some of the symptoms of type 2 diabetes, but people often attribute these to ageing or fatigue. Since his diagnosis, Mr Taylor has abandoned his diet of pizza and chips, cheeseburgers and chocolate. His doctor estimated that he had diabetes for about five years before it was diagnosed.

“People don’t realise that this disease can be deadly,” Mr Taylor said. “They don’t realise that you can lose your hands or legs, go blind or have severe heart attacks. If you look after yourself and eat healthily, you can manage the condition. If you don’t, there are serious side-effects and complications.”

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