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Cars are not the most dangerous things on the road; drivers are, a group of scientists says.
They believe that there are so many idiots behind the wheel that we would all be safer if cars were driven by robots.
Artificial intelligence, they claim, is safer than no intelligence at all — a trait which the average motorist is apt to detect in many other road users. Technology will have advanced so much in the next 25 years that by 2030 cars controlled by artificial intelligence will be a desirable reality and a great improvement on those guided by humans, Sebastian Thrun, of Stanford University in California, told the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).
His speculation is already familiar from fictional robotic vehicles such as Kitt, the star of the Knight Rider television series, to the 1997 horror film Trucks, in which driverless lorries descend on a small American town and frightens the wits out of the inhabitants.
Dr Thrun led the team that designed Stanley, a modified Volkswagen Touareg that won a $2 million (£1.02 million) prize for self-driving vehicles organised by the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa) of the US Government.
The same group yesterday unveiled Junior, a VW Passat that will compete for the next Darpa challenge for cars that can steer themselves in an urban environment.
“Today, we are in a state where a car can drive 100 miles, plus or minus, before human assistance is necessary,” Dr Thrun explained. “By 2010 we expect this to go to about 1,000 miles, and by 2020 to a million miles before any kind of incident would occur.
“By 2030, roughly, we should be able to deploy this technology on highways, where we would improve human reliability by orders of magnitude.”
Junior is designed to be capable of making many more decisions than Stanley, as the new robot will have to handle traffic and manoeuvres. The Darpa contest will be staged in November at an airfield in California. The robot cars will be expected to cover sixty miles in six hours. In the previous challenge, the robot vehicles had only to be able to sense static objects and steer around them on a desert course of more than 130 miles.
The task facing Junior will be much tougher: it must be aware of all moving objects and complete journeys in a simulated city environment in which other cars must be negotiated and traffic laws obeyed.
“In the last challenge, it didn’t really matter whether an obstacle was a rock or a bush because either way you’d just drive around it,” Dr Thrun said. “The current challenge is to move from just sensing the environment to understanding the environment.”
Mike Montemerlo, another member of the Stanford team, said: “This has a component of prediction. There are other intelligent robot drivers out in the world. They are all making decisions. Predicting what they are going to do in the future is a hard problem that is important to driving. Is it my turn at the intersection? Do I have time to get across the intersection before somebody hits me?
“Controlling the entire vehicle, you have to be able to deal with an unpredictable environment — 99 per cent of driving is easy, but getting robots to do that last 1 per cent safely is the issue.”
Dr Thrun said that the technology was almost certain to have military applications, and could be used by the US Army as soon as 2015 — perhaps 15 years before self-driven cars become available to civilians.
Kitt cars
-In 1995 two US researchers drove 3,000 miles from Pittsburgh to San Diego in a Pontiac minivan that steered itself for 98.2% of the way
-In 1997 Ernst Dickmanns won the Philip Morris Research Prize for his Mercedes S-Class which completed a 1,000mile test run from Munich to Denmark 95% automatically
-In 2005 tests of an S-Class Mercedes with a radar-based brake system ended in a three-car pile-up, televised by a German broadcaster. It was later reported that the accident had been faked
-Kitt, the fictional robotic vehicle of the Knight Rider TV series popularised the robo-car idea
Source: Times database

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I am a yr11 sociology student and i chose to base i on youths involvement in car crimes. Yes the carsounds good, and it may be reliable. However glbal warming is a big issue an this doesn't sound as if it will help. Also i would like to point out that it could be a long while until anyone would be able to afford it, especially youths who have a higher casualty and accident toll.
Lorna, Northampton, England
Gone are the days where our forefathers have had to slice their way into the dark primordial jungles with only a machete and a canteen of water or make there way across an arid desert with only a camel as a companion. I say hello to the future of mankind, a future where climate control is not a bonus but a requirement, a future where the voices of our friends are beamed directly into our pocket whether we choose to hear the annoying little rings and vibrations or not. A future where you belong to the world, where you are part of the whole and the concept of individuality is just that a concept. At least I can sleep while the toys take care of me.
Evan, Perth, Australua
I like to drive on fun roads, but on the boring stuff I can barely pay attention. People express themselves too much in their autos. That is only human. If we can get the safety up then maybe a 150 kilogram car could save us all. Maybe we could even call for it on a cell phone.
Paul, San Jose, California
Would be interested to know how the cars will cope with pedestrians that appear from behind buses or kids that run onto the road to chase there ball etc.
Emma, London,
it's a logical progression of our technology really. Saying people should just learn to driver better reeks of old-school thought and denies our evolution towards human/machine symbiosis. Get with the here and now people, its an exciting time to be alive. I can't wait to get into one of these things :) (and if I crash and die, well, at the least the system will only get better developed haha!)
michael, brisvegas, queensland, australia
Assistive technology for drivers has been possible for years; people in the industry were dreaming of car-trains ten years ago when I joined it. The real problem is not the technology - it's the people.
Those 'idiots' who drive without care for others are the same people who will resist technology - they want to 'drive', not sit still. This is the real reason automatic transmission, cruise control, lane-following, radar following etc. isn't on all cars - demand, not capability, is the limiting factor.
Why not make cruise control mandatory on all new cars? There's no reason not to have it, and that would take our eyes from the speedometers and back onto the road - looking out for those driving without due care and attention, and maybe saving a few lives.
David McCabe, Oxford, UK
Surely the cheapest way to improve the standard of driving is to have a far stiffer test, written and practical, and even (dare I say it?) age limitations, eg only drivers over 25 and under 60!!! How about that then?
Johnie Bennett, Worthing , west sussex
Y'know what'd be even better? If people had to actually learn to drive before getting a license. Automatic parallel parking, traction control, 'anti-tipping', all these things do is promote laziness and ineptitude. If driving is too much of a bother, then don't do it.
Ben, Iron River,
Perhaps the problem is that drivers aren't dumb enough.
Jonathan Lowenstein, Tel-Aviv, Israel
The insurance companies should definetly be investing into this technology. It's them who has to pay out the claims after the accidents.
One thing they failed to mention was the possibility of the robot vechiles communicating with each other. If one vechile communicated their locations to the other vechiles, they would all know who was pulling off or turning. As well if the vechiles communicated with the traffic signals then there would be no more running red lights.
Just think..no more little old lady drivers going 60 km/h in the fast lane.
My only concern is changing weather conditions. A vehicle would have to be able to recognize when the road become covered in snow and heavy rain. As well there would be the worry about over powering the road on 'black ice'.
B Woodfield, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
Brilliant idea. I am a professional driver and have driven just about everything there is to drive. Over the past few years, I have come to hate driving because of some of the lunatics now on the road.
I am also the world's greatest passenger; I love to be driven, but no matter how good you or your driver is, no matter how skillful, you are still at the mercy of the unpredictable motorist; the guy who doesn't drive by the rules. I'm pretty certain some of them get their licences out a lucky bag.
Give me robotic drivers any time, at least they will be kitted out with a brain.
David, Liverpool, UK
It should be simple to fund automated driving, as road traffic accidents cost the UK 6 billion pounds a year. And what a result it would be! No more staring at a road for hours on end. I could read, work, sleep or even talk on the mobile phone!
Mike Ayres, Bodmin, Cornwall
The opening two sentences say it all.
The real problem is that the idiots behind the wheel are oblivious to the fact they are idiots and our law enforcers only target one type of motoring offence. Investment in technology to facilitate the prosecution of a motorist who breaks the speed limited has meant that no investment goes into other forms of motoring offences that are equally, and in some cases more, dangerous. Driving standards on the UK roads are at an all time low with too many people barely able to steer a vehicle let alone drive it safely.
K Vast, Gosport,
agree and agree and agree--- and am old....... where is behind the wheel education.. am an educator and k now it is .. But...... and where is the check and balance... have a friend her mother is mostly blind but her drivers license says she can drive... another one in Oshkosh, WI... a women who is in her late 90's got her license renewed until she is 102... big celebration.. NOT -----
The problem is no responsibility.. but see people my age doing dumb things... am 67.... and sure realize that we do change.. but for younger persons who speed and who do not consider others... VERY VERY SAD..BUT THE Kitt has to be better then the robots that answer telephone calls....
Carole Olson, Wautoma, , usa... wi