Jonathan Leake, Environment Editor
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EQUATORIAL lands that are home to hundreds of millions of people will become uninhabitable as food and water run out due to climate change, scientists will warn this week.
A report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to be published on Friday, will warn that the temperature rises of 2-3C predicted by 2050 spell global disaster for both humanity and the environment.
It will say that up to 40% of animal and plant species face extinction as rising temperatures destroy the ecosystems that support them. And it will point out that the 29 billion tons of carbon dioxide poured into the atmosphere each year are acidifying the oceans – threatening to destroy coral reefs, plankton and many commercial fish species.
By the middle of the century, the report will warn, more than 200m people could have been forced from their native lands by rising sea levels, floods and droughts, with many more facing early deaths from malnutrition and heat stress.
The report comes amid government embarrassment over the latest figures for Britain’s greenhouse gas emissions. Last week David Miliband, the environment secretary, admitted they had risen by 1.5% last year despite repeated Labour pledges to cut them.
“The picture that emerges from the research is quite appalling,” said Rachel Warren, of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, and one of the IPCC’s senior authors. “It is just horrendous realising what damage climate change can do to ecosystems.”
The IPCC report is a collation of the best peer-reviewed scientific research into the impact of climate change, published over the past five years or so.
It will say that many of the worst effects on humans will be caused by water – or lack of it – in the form of floods, drought, melting glaciers, rising sea levels and ocean acidification.
Nearly a third of the world’s land surface may be at risk of extreme drought by 2099, compared with about 1%. Such a change would destroy farmland and water resources and lead to mass migrations of “environmental refugees”.
The IPCC will also warn that the Amazon rainforest could be in danger. Professor Diana Liverman, director of the Environmental Change Institute at Oxford University, said the region was already experiencing an alarming reduction in rain.
“The warming of the oceans seems to be changing the water cycle,” she said.
In lands close to the equator, especially in Africa, declining crop yields could leave hundreds of millions of people unable to grow food.
In Europe, one of the most obvious early impacts will be the destruction of Alpine ski resorts, with about 70% losing snow cover by 2050.
The IPCC will say it is “too late” to avert some degree of climate change.
It will call on humanity to cooperate on adapting to the changes – while trying to limit them by cutting emissions.
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To Graham from Leeds:
You're right that "nature will not go extinct"... Nature will, like you say, evolve to adapt to the new conditions.
But it's not nature we're worried about. It's our survival.
As nature changes, we need to adapt fast enough as to limit the suffering that would result. Without action, the climate will change and billions of people will be short of food, water or employment. The West will protest "HIGH FUEL PRICES" whilst burning the same corn that could be used to feed those billions of starving people. Without action, we face a catastrophe.
So yes, nature will evolve, killing and displacing large numbers of people in the process, whilst you're filling your guilt-free eco-hybrid Jeep with corn-ethanol that the rest of the world could be eating.
"Climate Change" is, at least, a motivator to solve another big problem: the way we might (or might not) react to a declining oil supply.
James Kennedy, Wales, United Kindgom
read all the 14 views written here...
well i guess everyone has their own opinions but the truth is that earth's climate is changing, if you stay at a same place for more than 5 years you will notice the changes that are taking place... and im not joking...
here in delhi, the winters now don't even start before december and when we guys were in school we would usually wear our winter clothes from the month of october and the summers here have become more pathetic.. too much heat just drives everyone crazy here...
its not what the scientists or anyone says... observe it for urself, before we really go nuts and are forced to adapt to a world we never knew of...
Nita Mahajan, New Delhi, India
I am surprised by the previous comments because I have been living in canada for the last 5 years and I have experiences and observed changes perculiar changes and fluctuations in weather and temperatures. At the same time, my hometown is in Bangladesh, one of the most vulnearble country to climate change, and I truly believe that climate change is real as the weather patters, agricultural and fisheries industry as well as species are becoming extinct and ecosystems are disrupted. In some ways, climate change can be benefitial but it will affect those areas/countries in the world which are densely populated, hence increasing the pressure on developed nations as well heating up the issues with non-renewable resources, leading to greater conflict in the world.
Tamanna Shehreen, Waterloo, Canada
The whole greenhouse gases scaremongering is just the latest 'Y2K bug' hoax. More and more IPCC scientists are beginning to state that the historical evidence shows that climate change is a normal process. It's something that's going to happen regardless of what we do or don't do. The most we can do is try to manage the consequences.
Our efforts to stop climate change are simply a manifestation of mankinds belief that we can control everything. Nature will not go extinct. It will simply alter to fit in with the new environment, as it always has. This is called evolution.
Much more pertinent are the tens of thousands of jobs and tax revenue that are generated by the perpetuation of the human impact on global warming myth. A myth which, unlike the Y2K bug, has no end date in the near future!
Although I will concede the problem of increased conflict over resources and displacement is a real problem that must be addressed.
Graham, Leeds, England
Yet more scare stories. Climate change is real, but why do these 'experts' sound so negative? Is it because negative stories are the only ones the media will print? And what about over-population, the driving force behind rising emissions?
michael clarke, london, ul
Global warming is no problem here. My house will just be that much closer to the beach. And currently uninhabitable places like northern Canada will get better weather.
Joe Blow, Arlington, Virginia
This is a moral, spiritual and ethical issue. Science and history have taught us the hard lessons about what excess greenhouse gases can do. Major volcanic eruptions before the last big ice age and the smaller ice age have shown us the effect of too much of these gases. The threat is real and we have to live with the consequences. Actually, our children will have to live with it.
Carla, Cheyenne, WY
We shouldn't be concerned about those problems. All the more we should care about the environment as of now.
If we don't act today, perhaps tomorrow we will recognize the very end of nature's existence!
theoratically, such a situation as the report describes could occur every day!
"Nature doesn't need menkind, but menkind needs nature!"
Maddin, heidelberg, Germany
Judy , when you are done with being glib and parochial, how about telling us where your family will move to once Liverpool is under water. Oh, and where their food will come from after climate change wrecks the agricultural systems on which you currently rely.
aus9+1, London, England
I have no doubt that they will all find their way to Britain.
judy, Liverpool, england
As I am reading this article, the temperature outside my office has already risen by an abnormal 4 degrees. Bombay has been experiencing an extraordinary heat, something like what we experince in the months of May / June...and this has been the case since March. This is only one of the smallest of the many 'changing climate' anecdotes. I wonder why does humanity indulge in destruction of all of mother nature's creations for the benefit of their existence or simply for their convenience. Or is it just that destruction is a byproduct of whatever humanity defines 'development'?
It is high time that common people like most of the readers and myself act cautiously on this phenomenon of self destruction, and find more means to be more responsible and kind towards our planet Earth.
Sriram Krishnan, Mumbai, India
There is a climate change, floods in Rajasthan Thar desert, un expected rains and temperature increase these are signs of climate change
M.Lokeswara Rao, Bangalore, India
"Various eminent scientists" ?
Please:
a. Name them;
b. State how many papers they have published in peer-reviewed scientific journals on climate science, so that we can judge their level of expertise on this important issue.
Why do we not do an investigation on the these "climate change skeptics", and in particular on where their funding comes from ?
Mat Ballard, Melbourne, Australia
Dear Sir, various eminent scientists are now questioning whether there is such a thing as "global warming" with particular reference to periods of warming in the pre-industrial revolution period.
Why do we not have an investigation by the Sunday Times on this very important subject ?
Ian Copestake, Buxton, UK
Cause and effect...It's odd how so often the words 'climate change' are not substituted by 'man made global warming' or 'man made greenhouse gas' or 'man made CO2' whether in headlines or in body text. Consequently we lose sight of cause and effect so that the debate as to what is causing 'climate change' is closed down.
GC, Harrogate, UK